Reactions from ranked influencers
3 posts
Wish Dario had taken this bet.
🎺 I am hereby publicly offering to bet @darioamodei $1,000,000 that AI in 2027 will NOT be “smarter than Nobel Prize winners across most fields in science and engineering”. 🎺 Why? We are nowhere close. Consider: • New Stanford study from @ChengleiSi shows that “LLM ideas result in worse projects than human ideas” • April benchmark (LLM-SRBench) from @ParshinShojaee shows that LLMs struggle to infer causal laws • Current AI struggle even to infer the simple, stable laws of chess well enough to apply them reliably, despite access to vast relevant data. • Recent post by @skdh illustrates how error-prone LLMs are in reasoning about physics, when moving beyond regurgitation. • Many (probably most) current AI written scientific reports are garbage. Scientists will use AI heavily in 2027, but AI will not exceed the best scientists this decade. Probably not next. (cc @metaculus)
@GaryMarcus Do you have a clear test to decide the bet?
@peterjliu he didn’t take it so i didn’t bother