Really fun to hang again with my friend 🃏 @polynoamial (OpenAI research scientist, our first guest ever on @NoPriorsPod in early 2023) to talk about the implications of large test-time compute, and what happens when models are given $10M budgets to spend on a single task. Topics:
01:23 – Why Benchmarks Are Broken 04:19 – Compute Budgets and Projections 06:48 – How Long Should Models Think? 08:01 – Benchmarkmaxxing 09:48 – Noam's Evals 12:40 – Safety (When Model Capability Scales With Spend) 16:09 – Implications For the Model Release Cycle 18:34 – Latent Model Capability 22:27 – Limits on Recursive Self-Improvement 28:38 – Large-Scale Multi-Agent Coordination 30:39 – Competition at the Frontier 33:19 – Breaking the Benchmark Grid Equilibrium 34:57 – Why Benchmarks Should be Scaled by Cost
