Alex Imas argues Pew's AI survey showing 40% pessimism highlights a clash of stated and revealed preferences

@pmarca @fentasyl I beat this same drum about political opinion polls all the time

@pmarca Marc is the worst salesman for AI.

Case in point. Telling people he disagrees with that they must have been fooled by a mysterious "psyop".

Marc, maybe those people just have different long-term concerns than you do, and they understand what's best for their own lives.

@pmarca LETS GOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!

@pmarca Negative: Surveillance state is a real concern. Positive: It makes my current job more enjoyable and productive.

I don’t want liberals using it for some Orwellian oppressive fantasy they have

@pmarca I'd like to see how much the participant believes in their own self to succeed added as a variable. The left chart seems an unfair comparison if trying to form a case against AI so I agree on the psyop take.

@Nemtastic1 @pmarca @fentasyl Interesting pattern in the second image: Although the variance is different between the green and blue graphs, they are structurally similar. Therefore, people's satisfaction-level in their lives gets reflected on their satisfaction with the country's direction.

until recently p(doom) wasn’t a thing in household sentiment. my high-level reading is 1) some ai companies started using p(doom) as marketing/regularity capture strategy 2) tech used ai as cover to clean (covid) staffing bloating. i have j econ psychology piece showing if positive and negative ai narratives compete in shaping economic expectations, negative one always end up looming larger (not surprising!)

@pmarca we gotta fix the public view on AI and stop the doomerism

@pmarca They are fine with chatbots.

They are worried about agents that can fully replace humans, gen AI fakes, odds of skynet, and so on.

@pmarca the right runs psyops too they just brand them common sense

@pmarca Psyops? It’s a fundamental change in how we work and is locating entry level work now. It’s normal fear and anxiety for the future. I recall pushing through change at the start of the Internet revolution in the 90’s. Fear was bigger then, but we powered thru for better & worse.

@pmarca Social media is addictive and spreads dangerous misinformation. I read that on Facebook.

@pmarca What about those of us at risk of losing jobs & businesses? It's already happening, it's not a psyop. And it's only going to increase. What are we all supposed to do? When you're over 40 the job market isn't good!

@pmarca 1. AI can make us feel more productive, creative, and informed.

2. AI can also take my job.

Both can be true and show in these results.

@pmarca You should tell your friends to stop giving these people talking points. They are actively harming AI development.

@pmarca Many such case… which together make the long sweep of history & almost all current events

@pmarca Measuring happiness is like trying to measure hunger.

Asking "Will AI be beneficial for society over the next 20 years?" is like polling people on whether electricity, fire, or the internet will be net good without specifying how it's deployed, who controls it, or what guardrails exist. It's an abstract Rorschach test that mostly captures media narratives, dystopian headlines, and status-quo bias rather than reasoned forecasting.

@pmarca A major problem when selling the "AI will surveile everything" to the ultra wealthy/old money is they didn't realize they would also be surveiled. This is where the psyop comes from

Sorry, folks! There will be no kid diddling in the future of AI.

@pmarca Now ask them whether they'd be willing to pay for it at cost