Indirect state aid includes free land and cheap loans.
Ramez Naam#884
“The real surprise from the OECD’s subsidy numbers is that it cost China less than $18bn in sectoral support over 15 years to build an industry that can now provide more clean power than the world can readily absorb.”
Positive users praise China's solar dominance as a major clean energy achievement with modest subsidies, while negative users reject the low subsidy figures as understated and dismiss claims about plummeting energy prices.
It doesn't take much to bankrupt wypipo industries, huh. A bit over a billion a year, plus a touch of reasonable YIMBYism and just-doing-things. That's all. Terrifying, really. Then butthurt wypipos themselves will help clean up the evidence of the recipe.
“The real surprise from the OECD’s subsidy numbers is that it cost China less than $18bn in sectoral support over 15 years to build an industry that can now provide more clean power than the world can readily absorb.”
@orntwo @dwallacewells Energy prices DID plummet. In China. Lowest prices per KWh in the world. Partly due to renewables investment, but also other things like HVDC grid. Germany's consumer prices are high b/c political decisions (e.g. deciding to charge industry less, consumers more).
@dwallacewells Amazing. But you cannot run a grid solely on solar. You need base load and dispatchable energy. Which solar and wind are not. Gas is the ultimate dispatchable. This is just more misplaced capital bc of insane govt subsidies.
@dwallacewells In England they built 2.4 miles of high speed rail for that
@dwallacewells The real number is more like $50 billion. And that only includes the direct aids, not the rest (land for free, tax exemptions, IP rights pilfering, skirting on environmental rules, state-directed loans on friendly terms...). All together, USD 150-200 billion, if not more
@dwallacewells solar is the miracle tech of the future, not AI. in 2100 fossil fuels will be as useful as a 200 pound RCA television is today
@dwallacewells Bullshit. Energy prices would be plummeting.
@orntwo @dwallacewells Remove the tariffs and they would
@dwallacewells The $18bn figure is striking. Roughly half what the UK poured into HS2 before scrapping the northern leg. The bottleneck isn't capital or supply. It's permits, grid queues, and political capacity to move faster.
@MannekenPisNAFO @dwallacewells If $150 billion over 15 years, that's $10 billion per year, or very roughly $12 per panel at current production level. Chicken feed, and worth every penny.
@dwallacewells Or maybe the numbers are wrong because the methodology is deeply flawed. $18bn? Color me skeptical.
@CattelainFrano1 @dwallacewells Me as well. You also have to consider that China likes to work with mandates, which is not a direct state subsidy, but an extra cost to companies and consumers.
@dwallacewells China is closing the spigot, prices are going up. Inn the USA PV’s prices have been going up for the past 2 years already. Enough BS, thanks!❌🐂💩💩
@peasant_trader @dwallacewells The subsidies are indeed insane -- subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, that is. Renewables subsidies? Chickenfeed by comparison. The fossil fuel scam has been incredibly costly. Biggest scam in history.
@orntwo @dwallacewells Keep in mind that many things contribute to bottom line energy pricing. It is possible to have dirt-cheap generation and high end-user prices, depending. You have to actually study the details, not just go with a headline number or two.
@HarksenNiels @CattelainFrano1 @dwallacewells Waiting for a clear cash flow analysis (including subsidies) that delivers a zero, rather than negative, NPV for the Chinese solar buildout since 2023...
"Plummeting" is actually happening—just not on your retail bill. Wholesale power prices frequently drop to zero or go negative in high-renewable grids because solar has zero marginal fuel cost.
Wholesale buyers with Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) can literally get paid to take electricity during peak daytime hours in open real-time markets. If retail bills aren't dropping, it’s because grid infrastructure and transmission need to be built or replaced due to aging, whether or not there is renewable energy. The cost of these things has soared.
@orntwo @dwallacewells 500+ hours of negative prices in NL last year
@KersevanRoberto @dwallacewells Prices of panels are modest fraction of total system cost.
@alan2102z @dwallacewells Still going up, the cost of the system… as per LBL Quarterly reports. Write to them!👋
Indirect state aid includes free land and cheap loans.
Ramez Naam#884“The real surprise from the OECD’s subsidy numbers is that it cost China less than $18bn in sectoral support over 15 years to build an industry that can now provide more clean power than the world can readily absorb.”