utter nonsense. accounting and legal will NOT be fully automated in 18 months.

willing to put $100k against Suleyman on this.

https://fortune.com/article/why-microsoft-ai-chief-mustafa-suleyman-predicts-ai-automation-18-months/?utm_source=native_share&utm_medium=mobile&utm_campaign=social_share

@GaryMarcus People underesimate the difficulty of the last mile as well as the value of human touch.

I don't think that legal will be automated away *fully* within five years.

@metaculus

@kimmonismus Yeah… says the guy with a ai lab that can’t make models

@GaryMarcus IMHO, reliability will not be solved by a shiny new magical LLM or even by its successors.

It will come from strict harnesses around the model: verification, tests, constraints, tool use, and clear failure modes.

suleyman made the same prediction at inflection AI in 2023. he said personal AI would replace most knowledge work within 2-3 years. inflection's product was acqui-hired by microsoft 14 months later because it couldn't retain users.

the CEO of the company selling AI predicting that everyone needs AI within 18 months is a sales forecast formatted as a technology prediction. the timeline always matches the product roadmap, never the adoption curve

@kimmonismus Love following you! This interview was from Feb 2026

@kimmonismus not sure why they keep saying these things

That quote is not what Mr. Suleyman actually said. It’s a reporter’s exaggeration, sensationalizing it as “human-level” and “full automation” — classic Emergence Fantasy.

Mr. Suleyman belongs to a layer with extremely strong subjectivity and is a very realistic, grounded person.

He is not the type of person who would spout such delusions.

utter nonsense. accounting and legal will NOT be fully automated in 18 months.

willing to put $100k with Suleyman on this.

@kimmonismus @mcpark They were legally bound by OAI till sometime, now they are free to make their own model after contract negotiations

@AAMortazavi bet (based on what Suleyman said) would be more like: nobody is hiring humans for law or accounting anymore for full time jobs or consulting gigs in 18 months. and all firms in those business are run entirely by AI.

there’s just no way that’s actually happening that fast.

A lot of these AI timeline predictions feel more like headline competition than reality.

If AI replaces literally all white collar work in 18 months, then that also means CEOs, executives, consultants, strategists, managers, analysts, and probably half the people making these predictions disappear too.

Most companies still can’t even get their printers to work correctly.

@kimmonismus he himself has a white-collar job. It is complete nonsense.

@kimmonismus But it won't be Copilot. That thing can't even write an email.😃

@GaryMarcus Exactly. I don’t know how to define the bet but why wouldn’t tax returns for example be completely automated and then take it from there.

@GaryMarcus I don't think he's saying that all white collar work will be gone in 18 months but that the technology will be capable of doing that. In reality, the transition will take years and not completely replace people. The rich will pay people to use AI for them.

@GaryMarcus See Citadel CEO U turn recently on AI and finance. The big leap in coding combines LLM generalisation with specificity.

@kimmonismus Person whose livelihood depends on something happening says that same something will happen soon 🤦‍♂️

It’s not like he is a neutral observer.