Analyst Zephyr's forward-looking extrapolation points to CXMT pulling in over $130 billion in gross profit across the next 18 months, with the bulk redirected into fabs instead of dividends. Recent company results already show a sharp swing to profitability on higher DRAM prices, and the analyst sees that momentum continuing to underwrite equipment purchases and cleanroom builds.
Good point CXMT will generate over $130B in gross profit in the next 18 months
How they spend that money will determine how long the memory cycle lasts and what happens in 28-29
长鑫Q1归母净利润248亿，按H1指引线性外推，全年归母净利润大概率过1000亿。
按照这类型中国重资产制造业公司的运营惯例，分红极少甚至不分。1000亿级别的利润会几乎全额转化为资本开支。
这些资本开支最终流向设备采购和洁净室工程。设备端管制加速国产替代，可以想象一下国内半导体设备公司和洁净室工程公司的订单量金额能达到的量级。
这还只是算了长鑫，没算长江存储的。
CXMT's STAR Market application cleared review in late May with plans to raise roughly RMB 30 billion. The prospectus frames sustained profitability as the foundation for further capacity adds, though the exact size of the $130 billion projection remains an unverified extrapolation.
Nearly all projected earnings are described as flowing into capital expenditures rather than payouts, targeting equipment and cleanrooms to lift local DRAM output. No public filings yet detail the precise allocation or confirm the full reinvestment rate at this scale.
Positive users see CXMT's $130B profit forecast and DRAM reinvestment as a strong buy and money printer, while negative users fear CCP margin controls, market flooding, and corruption.
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Dig into WFE sub systems
$ACMR and Naura $002371 might receive some orders, any other potential beneficiaries (at least for non-mainland investors?)
Pfft well, fair enough the ride never ends. Land was right about technocapital, it's just surprisingly state-directed
Good point CXMT will generate over $130B in gross profit in the next 18 months
How they spend that money will determine how long the memory cycle lasts and what happens in 28-29
@zephyr_z9 你不是中国人所以才会有这种疑问 我可以告诉你没有第二种可能，长鑫 100% 会把所有钱拿去扩产 长鑫背后充满了中国政府的痕迹，中国政府会在意内存厂赚到的那点钱吗？他要的是全球高端制造产业链的话语权和市占率，以及长鑫对国内 AI 相关链条的扶持。不要拿他当只为了赚钱的商业公司
@zephyr_z9 Amat lcrx
@RJCcapital @zephyr_z9 No.
CXMT —> Yiling —> Mirae ($025560)
@teortaxesTex hmm, he is not right. Chinese govt definitely cares about profit. Otherwise, CXMT wouldn't have to IPO to get more funding.
Also, CXMT will make so much money that Chinese govt will obviously care about it.
@zephyr_z9 @EdwardDiGi They’ll spend on building more fabs
@zephyr_z9 Why is no one talking about the $QCOM HBC
@RJCcapital @zephyr_z9 Acmr
@mkfilko @RJCcapital @zephyr_z9 At 10x earnings. Best Buy in the market.
@teortaxesTex Mind blowing that someone put “little money” and dram factory in the same phrase.
That kind of stuff will continue to be a money printer for several years, beside being a strategic choke point…
@teortaxesTex Expand production, bring the products to more people. That’s the Chinese way. Used to be the American way before we got obsessed complaining about the Chinese.
The sendcutsend guy said it best, only charge enough to keep the machines running.
@zephyr_z9 When can we buy cheap Chinese RAM?
@badinvestor99 @zephyr_z9 So far away
@marsrocc @zephyr_z9 12 months?
@zephyr_z9 Wtf???
@XxXxALVESxXxX @teortaxesTex They of course must make some money to satisfy their employees and founders, but want the profit make by government fund must be cycle to expansion process, China gorverment control their currency, their are billions yuan not worth as the supply chain they want develope.
@tphuang He's exaggerating but I think the core point is valid, capacity expansion will take priority. DRAM availability is more valuable than CXMT's direct profits
@zephyr_z9 I think that you're off by one zero.
"全年归母净利润大概率过1000亿。" that's 100B RMB
@KaneCapz @zephyr_z9 I’m giga bull