
@deanwball I believe the commodification question will come down to if the value mainly accrues in the intellectual/informational layer ie. the learning algorithm vs. the hardware layer.
Critics prematurely predicted model capabilities would peak by 2030.
Some users respect the claim that VCs underestimate rapid AI progress past GPT levels, while others accuse VCs of incentive-driven ignorance and fear models advancing until mass unemployment.
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@deanwball I believe the commodification question will come down to if the value mainly accrues in the intellectual/informational layer ie. the learning algorithm vs. the hardware layer.

@daniel_mac8 I guess I shouldn't really share my thoughts on how this will resolve since any insights about this particular strategic question will probably soon constitute trade secrets of openai group pbc

@deanwball A model will always be "better" if it can produce more economic value. Which is to say, models will not be "good enough" until all humans are unemployed, and maybe not even then.

@deanwball I respect that.

VCs are incapable of understanding the AI technology due to extremely strong incentive to not understand it
VCs are about some outcome happening in 10 years, they simply cannot operate in such an unpredictable world where the ground is shifting so quickly
so everyone pretends nothing major will change and simply hope for the best