A Google DeepMind preprint maps continuous routes from human-level AGI to artificial superintelligence through four pathways—scaling current systems, paradigm shifts, recursive self-improvement, and multi-agent collectives—while noting associated technical and practical bottlenecks that could alter or delay the process.
How do we go from AGI to Superintelligence? New report discusses four potential pathways: scaling, AI paradigm shifts, recursive improvement, and ASI emerging from large-scale multi- agent collectives. Importantly, it also looks at possible frictions and bottlenecks along these pathways. Instant classic! https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.12683
The analysis flags bottlenecks without spelling out their precise mechanics or timelines, leaving open how severely they might constrain any given pathway.
Researchers focused on governance and AI safety have shared the work, suggesting the framework may feed into strategic planning even before peer review.
Positive users praise DeepMind's AGI-to-superintelligence report for its useful insights and suggestions, while negative users dismiss it as nebulous, unrealistic, or foreseeing an undesirable future without humans.
Well this goes instantly on the to-read list.
How do we go from AGI to Superintelligence? New report discusses four potential pathways: scaling, AI paradigm shifts, recursive improvement, and ASI emerging from large-scale multi- agent collectives. Importantly, it also looks at possible frictions and bottlenecks along these pathways. Instant classic! https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.12683
Looks like good reading for my train ride tomorrow.
How do we go from AGI to Superintelligence? New report discusses four potential pathways: scaling, AI paradigm shifts, recursive improvement, and ASI emerging from large-scale multi- agent collectives. Importantly, it also looks at possible frictions and bottlenecks along these pathways. Instant classic! https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.12683
AGI is sometimes framed as a single end point; more likely are successive "waves" of technological transformation... 🌊🌊🌊🌊
For more on this topic—and the possibility of Artificial Superintelligence—check out this @GoogleDeepMind report, led by Tim Genewein!
How do we go from AGI to Superintelligence? New report discusses four potential pathways: scaling, AI paradigm shifts, recursive improvement, and ASI emerging from large-scale multi- agent collectives. Importantly, it also looks at possible frictions and bottlenecks along these pathways. Instant classic! https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.12683
@GjMcGowan , my daughter and I will be reading it together, in case she decides she wants to recursively self-improve once she's of age.
Well this goes instantly on the to-read list.
@sebkrier Reality is built from oscillatory-dynamics. Consciousness as well. Superintelligence from linear symbols made parallel by clocks? Obviously this is a last-stage for binary, summoning words in order to pretend super is made automated. It's a little boy's toy fantasy. A gamer's.
@sebkrier on planifie le chemin vers l'asi pendant que mon agent ia oublie ce que je lui ai demandé 2 messages plus tôt.
@sebkrier very nice
@mhutter42 @OriolVinyalsML @willmacaskill @Yoshua_Bengio @DavidChalmer @paulfchristiano @dwarkesh_sp @a_korinek @tegmark @karpathy @RichardMCNgo AI paradigm shifts! Surely not!🤭
@sebkrier TO BE CRYSTAL-CLEAR: IN AN ASI WORLD THERE WILL BE NO HUMANS. (If you know anything about ecology, biology, natural selection and the competitive exclusion principle you will accept this FACT)
@sebkrier This is great.
@sebkrier Looking forward to AUI . Artificial ultra intelligence
@S_OhEigeartaigh She's already recursively self-improving!! But she'll cap out at human level, I'm almost certain
I don't think AIXI is the right "superintelligence" limit of practical interest. It's motivated by a philosophical quest to define intelligence but the actual limiting process of interest is more ... economic (?). The most glaring problem is that it treats rewards as a given when reward systems + generalization + the rest are all part of the dynamics we want the limit of.
(the AIXI stuff seems a bit independent of the rest of the discussion in any case)
@sebkrier This is the paper I need for a final point about my theory of change! Reading today!!!
@sebkrier Let's go boys. God awaits.
@sebkrier @zephyr_z9 it'd be more grounded reading if i went and picked up harry potter
@sebkrier all very nebulous & not a great deal of useful insight i can discern here. left wondering how much AI contributed to its authorship. IMO.
@S_OhEigeartaigh That was awesome, thanks for the link!
Solomonoff (1985) outlined a clear, computable path to ASI through milestones like general problem-solving theory, self-improvement, and massive parallel systems - directly inspiring Hutter’s AIXI (universal induction + optimal decisions). Far superior to singularity eschatology: rigorous, bottleneck-aware, and engineering-focused. https://raysolomonoff.com/publications/timesc.pdf
@S_OhEigeartaigh Thank you! I needed this one!!