McKinsey projects 11 million U.S. workers may need new occupations as AI reshapes work

Axios reports that a new McKinsey Global Institute analysis released Tuesday projects a large occupational reshuffle in the U.S. labor market as employers and workers adapt to AI.

According to Axios, the analysis estimates that roughly 11 million American workers — about 7% of the current labor force — may need to move into different occupations over the next decade. That would work out to about 770,000 workers a year changing occupations, compared with a long-run average of about 215,000, Axios writes.

Axios also says McKinsey describes the coming transition as significantly faster than earlier waves of technological change. Anna Kortis, a McKinsey partner and coauthor of the report, told Axios that AI will create new jobs, new roles and a reshaping of existing work, much as past general-purpose technologies did, but that the process will unfold faster and on a bigger scale.

The picture, as described by Axios, is less about a sudden collapse in employment than about a difficult adjustment period for millions of workers whose current roles may no longer map neatly onto the jobs that emerge next. The Axios report frames the findings as a broad warning that AI-driven change may be manageable at the level of total jobs while still being deeply disruptive for individual workers and career paths.