AI Impact Lags Capabilities Like Early Industrial Revolution
Discussions compare current AI effects to slow historical technology diffusion.
Jason Crawford notes that decades into the Industrial Revolution UK GDP per capita rose just 20 percent, arguing AI diffusion will also take time despite rapid capabilities growth. Steven Sinofsky adds that AI appears everywhere except productivity statistics, echoing the Solow Productivity Paradox from Brookings analyses of computers. The cluster frames AI's limited measured economic effects as typical early-stage lag rather than failure.
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AI Impact Lags Capabilities Like Early Industrial Revolution
Discussions compare current AI effects to slow historical technology diffusion.
Jason Crawford notes that decades into the Industrial Revolution UK GDP per capita rose just 20 percent, arguing AI diffusion will also take time despite rapid capabilities growth. Steven Sinofsky adds that AI appears everywhere except productivity statistics, echoing the Solow Productivity Paradox from Brookings analyses of computers. The cluster frames AI's limited measured economic effects as typical early-stage lag rather than failure.
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“If AI is so powerful, why is its impact so small?” Look, *decades* into the Industrial Revolution, GDP per capita in the UK had only increased about 20%, total! Impact takes time. Diffusion is slow. Even if it is 10x faster than in 1800, it's still early.
I think this is exactly what should give the "AGI-pilled" pause. Yes, AI can do all this stuff, yet somehow real world impact seems to be way below what one might predict. I just haven't seen almost anyone able to articulate very clearly what's happening here. I almost feel like we lack the fundamental analytical tools and mental models to analyze the situation properly. I would really like to read more thoughtful stuff on exactly why there's this gap between what models can do in principle and the irl outcomes.
Previously:
New tech does not change the world overnight. In 1806, the steam engine was over 90 years old and Watt's improved engine over 35 years old. But there were no practical steam-powered boats, trains or flying machines; and most factories were not yet automated. Diffusion takes time. Even if it is 10x faster today, if ChatGPT ~= the Watt engine of AI, then we are only at about 1806 right now. The steamboats and locomotives of AI are coming soon. And then the equivalent of the internal combustion engine and the electric generator…
@jasoncrawford AI is everywhere except in the productivity statistics. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-solow-productivity-paradox-what-do-computers-do-to-productivity/