China controls 40% of global shipbuilding capacity, US under 0.5%.
Seems bad
China has overtaken the U.S. fleet in active warships and China’s industrial capacity suggests a growing gap ahead. And that’s a metric where size matters: History suggests that higher quality, smaller fleets lose out to larger fleets in nearly 90% of naval wars: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/06/18/rowing-in-the-same-direction/?utm_campaign=&utm_content=1781988780&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
Many users criticized US naval decline versus China, citing mismanaged submarine advantages, absent shipbuilding ambition, and bleak prospects in future conflicts.
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@AlecStapp @Noahpinion The worst part is subs. It truly was our ace in the hole and we messed it up.
@AlecStapp @Noahpinion The other thing is, there’s just no ambition to fix it. Even the current shipbuilding plan which presumes to be an ambitious document doesn’t even argue we should build more shipyards. Which is just bonkers.
@tesavova @AlecStapp The relative struggle to prosecute the war in Iran really isn't saying good things about how well this is likely to work.
@AlecStapp None of those ships allows them to have the air cover of a blue water navy. They could only get past Hawaii in theory.
@AlecStapp B21 with an 80 stick of quicksinks says wuddup
@AlecStapp "We'll just have China build us more ships."
(U.S. current administrative response, probably)
@mdcbowen @AlecStapp I think anyone serious about the subject understands that this trend is getting worse, not better, and that in any kind of attritional conflict this probably ends extremely badly unless week 1 involves every Chinese shipyard exploding, and Iran is putting that very into question.
@Skade590739 @AlecStapp China isn’t Iran so I wouldn’t say that proves too much.
At the same time a couple dozen B21s would’ve really unstuck some things.
@Skade590739 @AlecStapp ~100% of Iran’s Navy is at the bottom of the ocean. US inability/unwillingness to prevent merchant traffic from being plinked with lawnmower drones notwithstanding.
@AlecStapp 在中国国内军迷圈内有一个共识：新冠疫情美国短时间内失去了一大批60岁左右的老工人，断了传承，很多一线工人的操作工艺，背后不仅仅是数字，而是一整套实际工作中积累的经验与“传-帮-带”传统工作模式的中断。
