Many users expressed excitement over the larger than expected production ramp at Source Photonics because it signals impressive growth and competitive gains against rivals like LITE and COHR.
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Always remember that cheap beats amazing RIN/linewidth when it comes to transceivers
@AnalysisOp @zephyr_z9 I'm not sure what moat there is for $LITE at >200G. It's just an InP laser, and I think the whole linewidth is amazing / RIN is low is oversold.
@zephyr_z9 Core strategy: My master plan. 💲
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@vikramskr Optical transceivers- From 500k/month rn to 1M/month by end of 26 and 2M/month by end of 27 200G EML in MP, customer validation going on Meta is already a customer EML production (100G/200G) at 9M/month, plan to scale it to 22M/month by year end
@vikramskr Well, they have ambitious targets (which are hard to believe) Yields are very important here (i don't know that number) 2027 transceiver demand is around 100M-110M (my estimate rn)
@zephyr_z9 Insane! $LITE $COHR lunch getting eaten now you think?
@zephyr_z9 How big is it?
@AnalysisOp @zephyr_z9 I'm not sure what moat there is for $LITE at >200G. It's just an InP laser, and I think the whole linewidth is amazing / RIN is low is oversold.
@vikramskr @zephyr_z9 Vik, remember that beyond 200G is where the play really starts. They can manage "mediocre" things below, but above nope
LITE (and I hope AAOI 😅)has a huge moat
@KairosPraxis @vikramskr MP has started, 200G in customer validation
The big question is, will Eoptolink/Accelink/Innolight start buying from them due to supply constraints and start putting them in their transceivers They have a real Meta order
@zephyr_z9 I was at their IR meeting a few wks back and they said they can make 100G/lane, so 800G, then it’s a matter of ramping up production.
@vikramskr @zephyr_z9 For this:
@zephyr_z9 Definitely worth investigating and keeping an eye on. This alone won't turn me bearish on the optics trade yet
@zephyr_z9 @vikramskr How far behind the top players ($LITE/$COHR) do you think they are in 200G?
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@zephyr_z9 My strategy plan.
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@zephyr_z9 yeah their optical transceiver numbers surprised me too, especially the 800G ramp timeline. fr thought they'd be behind the usual suspects
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@zephyr_z9 What do you think are the implications for the Western supply chain? Western photonic names have been lagging lately
@zephyr_z9 肯定的呀 德国A设备一上来，国产激光器肯定放出来 1台mocvd 2-3mn/m 3寸晶圆切1w颗，6寸线直接4倍 4月份通美调研就不缺料了
关键是，你能卖给谁？
@zephyr_z9 interesting. if Dongshan/Source is scaling that much, the read-through is prob 800G/1.6T supply still tighter than the consensus spreadsheet wants to admit. what changed your view?