Subsidized data plans in emerging markets drive the downloads
Meta AI has shockingly grown 2.5x in the last 2mos and is poised to be the #3 AI consumer app in the world behind Gemini and ChatGPT.
Sadly, this growth is very likely inorganic given it has by far the worst retention by a mile: only 4.5% users stay in 30 days.
Many users dismissed Meta AI's 2.5x download surge as unsustainable because its 4.5% retention shows users try it once via prompts in other apps and leave, while a few saw potential for future loyalty gains.
@deedydas what a lot of people don’t know is that due to their emerging markets program where they subsidize data plans for their apps, a lot of people only use Meta AI.
Meta AI has shockingly grown 2.5x in the last 2mos and is poised to be the #3 AI consumer app in the world behind Gemini and ChatGPT.
Sadly, this growth is very likely inorganic given it has by far the worst retention by a mile: only 4.5% users stay in 30 days.
@deedydas And even those 4.5% are clicking it by mistake on the WhatsApp interface.
Remove WhatsApp attribution channel and see what the number drops to.
This is why looking at the right data matters in every industry.
Growth and retention are not the same thing.
But many founders still miss this.
They get too excited about growth when the real focus should be stickiness.
Acquisition tells you people are curious.
Retention tells you the product is becoming a habit
@deedydas Isn't retention lagging though? I see last updated date is December 2025 - so the metric isn't really surprising given the older models being used were shit.
Muse Spark was a significant update over the older models, so I'd expect similar improvements in retention as well.
@deedydas Non stop notification campaigns on two other apps used by over a billion people a month help.
Suspect the retention won’t be anywhere close to other AIs.
@deedydas Do you have graphs for US and India only? Looks like meta ai is following threads trend in terms of retention
@deedydas Meta uses many dark patterns to push users into their AI and threads app. Not surprising that their retention numbers are the lowest amongst their peers.
@deedydas Growth to a billion phones means nothing if 95% leave in 30 days. That's not a top app, that's a feature people turn off.
@deedydas might be wrong but 4.5% of 2.5x still means absolute retained users are growing fast. is the story bad retention or just that 95.5% tried it once from a notification and bounced?
@deedydas Mera AI is app standalone? I don’t think anybody has ever downloaded that. Maybe they’re counting the Whatsapp mistaken people clicking that strange bubble and saying this is Meta AI.
@deedydas Is this based solely on the Meta AI standalone app? If yes, then missing the whole picture
@deedydas Imagine if it brought back the poke button.
@deedydas 30d retention at 4.5% vs ChatGPT’s ~15%+ tells you it’s all install-base leverage, not product-market fit. DAU/MAU ratio will be the real tell next quarter.
@deedydas throwing money at everything 💸
@deedydas Growth without retention is distribution doing the work. The real AI app test is who comes back when it is no longer in their default path.
@deedydas 4.5% day-30 retention makes sense once you trace the install source: most meta ai users got prompted inside whatsapp or instagram, tapped once out of curiosity, and had no reason to open a dedicated app again.
@deedydas I agree that turning one-time curiosity into everyday use is the real test for any AI tool. Building features that solve repeated daily problems would create the loyalty needed for lasting success.
@deedydas Where's ChatGPT on downloads?
@deedydas Another Threads… 😀
@deedydas TIL that Meta AI has a standalone app.
Subsidized data plans in emerging markets drive the downloads
Meta AI has shockingly grown 2.5x in the last 2mos and is poised to be the #3 AI consumer app in the world behind Gemini and ChatGPT.
Sadly, this growth is very likely inorganic given it has by far the worst retention by a mile: only 4.5% users stay in 30 days.