Focus On Current AI Competition Ignores Steep Capability Curve
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I still believe that everyone is too fixated on the state of play in AI right now (which companies in which countries are winning, how to manage costs, etc.) and not focused enough on the continued steepness of the capability curve for AI At high capabilities, a lot changes fast
And this is not some reference to a future ASI (though it could be that too), but instead a reference to to where many observers expect the capability curve to be a year from now (exponentially improved, given current trajectories), even though models continue to be jagged.