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AI’s “permanent underclass” narrative doesn’t fit the evidence, a16z partner argues

An a16z general partner cites what he describes as record job postings and roughly 20 relevant competitors in each layer of the AI stack, contrasting that competition with a more centralized previous tech era.

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1 Source, 24d ago, first seen 24d ago

TLDR

An a16z general partner calls the AI-era “permanent underclass” narrative a “dark fantasy.” In remarks shared by the firm, he argues that widely distributed opportunities, competition across the AI stack and record job postings point against it. He also distinguishes using new technology to improve a process from recursive self-improvement, which he says could produce a runaway winner. His contention is that the former—not true recursive self-improvement—is happening.

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1 Source, first seen 24d ago

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Combined views

33.1K

1 Source, first seen 24d ago

61 likes6 comments18 saves4 reposts

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1 Source

@a16za16z's Anish Acharya on the AI era's "permanent underclass" and the reasons he doesn't buy it: "It's a funny dark fantasy that we seem to have as Silicon Valley collectively. Things have never been better, really by almost every measure." "By how distributed all the opportunities are, by the kind of technology we have access to, to the types of ambition we're allowed to have, and to the number of companies independently working on things that are winning." "The last era of tech was a lot more centralized... If you look at what's happening now, every part of the stack, there's not even two relevant players. There's like 20." "You've heard all the economic data... And of course job postings are higher than they've ever been, as well as programmers. So I don't know that the empirical data bears it out." "RSI, recursive self-improvement, is a fun term to throw around. But if you ask the most sophisticated individuals at the labs, it's not actually RSI that's occurring, which could lead to some runaway winner... It's autocatalytic effects, which just means you're using the new technology to improve your process, but it's not truly recursive." "So everything from the most empirical to the most technical points in the other direction, and yet we can't seem to let go of this fantasy." @illscience w/ @lennysan24d
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    @a16za16z's Anish Acharya on the AI era's "permanent underclass" and the reasons he doesn't buy it: "It's a funny dark fantasy that we seem to have as Silicon Valley collectively. Things have never been better, really by almost every measure." "By how distributed all the opportunities are, by the kind of technology we have access to, to the types of ambition we're allowed to have, and to the number of companies independently working on things that are winning." "The last era of tech was a lot more centralized... If you look at what's happening now, every part of the stack, there's not even two relevant players. There's like 20." "You've heard all the economic data... And of course job postings are higher than they've ever been, as well as programmers. So I don't know that the empirical data bears it out." "RSI, recursive self-improvement, is a fun term to throw around. But if you ask the most sophisticated individuals at the labs, it's not actually RSI that's occurring, which could lead to some runaway winner... It's autocatalytic effects, which just means you're using the new technology to improve your process, but it's not truly recursive." "So everything from the most empirical to the most technical points in the other direction, and yet we can't seem to let go of this fantasy." @illscience w/ @lennysan24d
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