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@tenobrus... And if not, why the tweet? The feasibility of coordination is unknown, and it drops with every tweet insisting it's impossible. I don't think we should lie about the situation, but at this point I'd guess 10+% of the coordination difficulty is self-fulfilling prophecy.
@robbensinger i certainly don't have a more realistic proposal:( v happy for people to be expressing positive visions. still i don't feel i'm doing damage by noticing a scenario seems to assume an extra 2 years to coordinate + very different political climate vs what i see as plausible?
@tenobrus I feel quite positive about very concrete criticisms of which points seem unnecessarily unrealistic, especially paired with "you shouldn't be putting your hope there, you should be trying for [X] instead". But just saying "it's all hopeless, we're doomed" seems less helpful imo?
@tenobrus And if you do want to argue against the feasibility of coordination, I feel a lot better about very concrete 'because of observations XYZ, I think coordination of types ABC is unlikely to succeed' than about very general and vibesy statements. The vibes are especially mutable.
@tenobrus... And if not, why the tweet? The feasibility of coordination is unknown, and it drops with every tweet insisting it's impossible. I don't think we should lie about the situation, but at this point I'd guess 10+% of the coordination difficulty is self-fulfilling prophecy.
@tenobrus I also feel less worried about self-fulfilling prophecies if you're talking about something other than coordination; coordination is uniquely self-fulfilling-prophecy-flavored, in a way that's a lot less true for eg tractability of technical projects.
@tenobrus Do you have a proposal for us all surviving that you think is more realistic?
@robbensinger but maybe im wrong and i am actually doing damage by being pessimistic here
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@tenobrus Do you have a proposal for us all surviving that you think is more realistic?