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US visas issued to international students fell by roughly a third in 2025. Today, DHS finalized changes to a rule known as "Duration of Status" — a move that will help lock that decline in place. The fallout for the STEM workforce, innovation, and economic growth could be severe. A sustained one-third decline in foreign STEM graduates entering the US labor force would shrink the high-skill STEM workforce by 6.2% overall and by 11.5% at the PhD level. Over a decade, that would cut annual US GDP by $240 billion to $481 billion, comparable to losing an entire state's economy. That's the estimate from @AmyMNice, in a guest research brief for Hoover's Immigration Initiative, drawing on research she co-authored with @m_clem and @JeremyLNeufeld. Read the full brief: https://www.hoover.org/research/breaking-front-door-international-stem-talent-pipeline-will-erode-americas-competitive
Do our lawmakers realize these changes are hysteretic in the damages they cause? We will see effects 1-2 presidents down the line, and it will be too late to do much about it.
US visas issued to international students fell by roughly a third in 2025. Today, DHS finalized changes to a rule known as "Duration of Status" — a move that will help lock that decline in place. The fallout for the STEM workforce, innovation, and economic growth could be severe. A sustained one-third decline in foreign STEM graduates entering the US labor force would shrink the high-skill STEM workforce by 6.2% overall and by 11.5% at the PhD level. Over a decade, that would cut annual US GDP by $240 billion to $481 billion, comparable to losing an entire state's economy. That's the estimate from @AmyMNice, in a guest research brief for Hoover's Immigration Initiative, drawing on research she co-authored with @m_clem and @JeremyLNeufeld. Read the full brief: https://www.hoover.org/research/breaking-front-door-international-stem-talent-pipeline-will-erode-americas-competitive