I am honestly curious to know what kind of "AI progression" would have been necessary over the last 5 years for @deanwball to consider such a premise to be reasonable.
Lord, grant me the cajones to one day begin my essay: “Let’s start from this premise: I am correct. My conception of cognition, AI, labor markets, the economy, human beings, and the world is perfect, and things will go exactly as I expect. I can’t prove this, but…”
Many users accused the researcher of bad faith, disingenuousness, and pettiness when questioning the optimistic premise of full AI worker replacement.
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@francoisfleuret it isn't really tied to capabilities per se. such a significant number of the relevant tasks are relational in nature that you'd need profound institutional transformations to have taken place for this to be a cognizable scenario.
@deanwball At this point I do not know if you truly are confused about the notions of premise and conclusion, or if you pretend to be to get engagement. In any case, I am out.
@francoisfleuret I think basically the thing to understand is that the premise assumes an utter transformation of the role of human institutions, up to and including the point of human loss of control over all legitimate violence. this is a massive assumption, smuggled in through a pinhole.
@francoisfleuret @deanwball He's being willfully disingenuous and misrepresenting the argument because the essay made a mild jab at him and also because he has an obvious conflict of interest preventing him from entertaining the premise & conclusion.
@francoisfleuret @deanwball He is just reasoning in bad faith. I wish everyone would state there premises. Most disagreements come from people assuming different premises on others.
@francoisfleuret @deanwball Who wrote this essay
@deanwball @francoisfleuret Ok but you can have an ai whisper what to do in your ear?
@francoisfleuret @deanwball IMO you need really shallow definitions of productivity to accept this premise, especially physical work
@deanwball What puzzles me is your reaction to the premise.
@francoisfleuret it isn't really tied to capabilities per se. such a significant number of the relevant tasks are relational in nature that you'd need profound institutional transformations to have taken place for this to be a cognizable scenario.
@deanwball @francoisfleuret Is China's AI Diffusion strategy not exactly the type of profound institutional transformation you're scoffing at? Their stated goal is 90% AI adoption by 2030 (<5 years) - model capabilities don't seem to be a factor. Is this scenario unreasonable/uncognizable?
@crush100x @francoisfleuret @deanwball scary that the guy who literally gets the make decisions about these things can be so petty...
@francoisfleuret @deanwball some people want to meet god in real life very hard
@deanwball @francoisfleuret "So what would you say you 'do' here?"
"I'M A PEOPLE PERSON, GOD DAMMIT!"
@francoisfleuret @deanwball the one where he wouldn’t have to join openai?
@francoisfleuret @deanwball I guess if you broaden ai to just mean marginal improvements in the productivity of capital enabled by modern software+data then sure, but it’s why economists are way more conservative than “ai researchers”
@francoisfleuret @deanwball For image models to be steerable? Legal AI to not hallucinate citations? Frontier models to be better at ordinary computer-based tasks?