/Tech6h ago

Researcher Gavin Leech argues Dario Amodei's exponential AI capability claims mathematically require doubly exponential compute inputs

Microsoft's Dimitris Papailiopoulos joked the essay omitted a logarithm

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Joel Becker@joel_bkr

@gleech i think you're being too picky :p it's reasonable to say translation from perplexity/whatever to capabilities is exponential, and inputs to perplexity exponential, so scaling laws imply exponential gains, even if technically there's unstated translation step

are you kidding me

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@DimitrisPapail oh wait I'm a dumdum; it does increase exponentially (ɢɪᴠᴇɴ ᴅᴏᴜʙʟʏ-ᴇxᴘᴏɴᴇɴᴛɪᴀʟ ɪɴᴘᴜᴛs)

@gleech Forgot to take the log

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Given the target audience I'm sure it's mostly intended in the colloquial sense. Regardly I would not ever let this sentence out of my face into the world without saying "exponentially increasing computing power" too

Joel Becker@joel_bkr

@gleech i think you're being too picky :p it's reasonable to say translation from perplexity/whatever to capabilities is exponential, and inputs to perplexity exponential, so scaling laws imply exponential gains, even if technically there's unstated translation step

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@gleech Eh, What are two forgotten logs among friends

@DimitrisPapail oh wait I'm a dumdum; it does increase exponentially (ɢɪᴠᴇɴ ᴅᴏᴜʙʟʏ-ᴇxᴘᴏɴᴇɴᴛɪᴀʟ ɪɴᴘᴜᴛs)

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