3/ After the war—and in a bigger way after the Cold War—we kept the defense industrial base alive because “what if.”
But there was no war, there was no enemy, and so defense programs became job programs.
2/The US won World War 2 industrially because it had the world’s best commercial manufacturing. Ford and others converted their factories, leveraged their know how, and out produced the Axis.
Positive users support reviving the U.S. tool and die industry for stronger domestic manufacturing, while negative users criticize defense programs as corporate welfare that outsourced production to China.
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5/ In commercial industry, having customers is what keeps builders honest. If you don’t produce a useful product at a reasonable price you go out of business. Adam Smith’s invisible hand keeps producers smart, efficient, and agile.
4/ Letting defense become corporate welfare—while shipping commercial manufacturing to China—is one of the worst decisions in American history.
14/ Put differently, in peacetime it makes no sense to build weapons at scale. But it is critically important to have agile commercial manufacturing that can pivot on a moment’s notice.
12/ This is how the hollowing out of the commercial industrial base in the name of globalization becomes an existential national security problem:
When there is no commercial industrial base, there is nothing to step up in time of war!
15/ This is why the US must rebuild manufacturing—and that rebuild must be primarily advanced commercial. Boom stands ready should the worst come to pass.
14/ Put differently, in peacetime it makes no sense to build weapons at scale. But it is critically important to have agile commercial manufacturing that can pivot on a moment’s notice.
6/ In wartime, the enemy is the real customer of defense products—the enemy defines what is useful and war economics drive what costs are viable.
Defense products iterate on the battlefield with the enemy.
5/ In commercial industry, having customers is what keeps builders honest. If you don’t produce a useful product at a reasonable price you go out of business. Adam Smith’s invisible hand keeps producers smart, efficient, and agile.
7/ But without an enemy constantly testing, the defense ecosystem loses its way. Eg it builds exquisite missile interceptors that cost more than the missiles they intercept—and can’t be produced as quickly as the enemy could build missiles.
6/ In wartime, the enemy is the real customer of defense products—the enemy defines what is useful and war economics drive what costs are viable.
Defense products iterate on the battlefield with the enemy.
11/ In a healthy USA, this is when we would turn to our commercial industrial base. We’d temporarily backburner production of the nice-to-haves and make the defense products the country needs to win.
10/ None of the supply chain or even the products were built to scale or to iterate. It was all built to create jobs not to win a war. If the stockpiles are obsolete or depleted new weapons cannot be created a rate necessary to win a war.
8/ During peacetime this is “okay”—but the lack of any real customer pressure makes the defense companies fat, dumb, and slow. They design things that could never be built at scale. They dribble products into stockpiles that are supposed to keep us safe.
7/ But without an enemy constantly testing, the defense ecosystem loses its way. Eg it builds exquisite missile interceptors that cost more than the missiles they intercept—and can’t be produced as quickly as the enemy could build missiles.
10/ None of the supply chain or even the products were built to scale or to iterate. It was all built to create jobs not to win a war. If the stockpiles are obsolete or depleted new weapons cannot be created a rate necessary to win a war.
9/ But what happens if the enemy outsmarts or outlasts the stockpile?
9/ But what happens if the enemy outsmarts or outlasts the stockpile?
8/ During peacetime this is “okay”—but the lack of any real customer pressure makes the defense companies fat, dumb, and slow. They design things that could never be built at scale. They dribble products into stockpiles that are supposed to keep us safe.
4/ Letting defense become corporate welfare—while shipping commercial manufacturing to China—is one of the worst decisions in American history.
12/ This is how the hollowing out of the commercial industrial base in the name of globalization becomes an existential national security problem:
When there is no commercial industrial base, there is nothing to step up in time of war!
@bscholl I'm all for this. Bring back our tool & die industry for manufacturing the stuff that helps us manufacture everything else!