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Take rates versus ad partnerships in AI-agent shopping

A post calls a 30% agent share with a 3% take rate by 2030 “extraordinarily aggressive.”

Eric SeufertES
Mobile Dev MemoMD
2 Sources, 1h ago, first seen 1h ago

TLDR

A post argues that a 30% agent share with a 3% take rate by 2030 is extraordinarily aggressive; at 5–10% share, it says, the take-rate approach looks futile or indefensible. It favors ad partnerships like the one it says Amazon has struck with OpenAI, allowing large retailers to join agent-driven shopping while keeping customer relationships and ad revenue. In that model, it argues, daily active users—not commerce share or take rate—would determine revenue.

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3.3K

2 Sources, first seen 1h ago

39 likes9 comments11 saves8 reposts

Combined views

3.3K

2 Sources, first seen 1h ago

39 likes9 comments11 saves8 reposts

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2 Sources

Eric Seufert@eric_seufert30% agent share with a 3% take rate by 2030 is extraordinarily aggressive. Repeat this arithmetic with 5-10% agent share and the entire endeavor looks futile / indefensible. Unless, of course, agents don't implement a take rate, which, for many reasons, can't scale to a stable equilibrium. Rather, if agents implement ad partnerships like the one Amazon has already struck with OpenAI, allowing the largest retail platforms to integrate directly into off-platform agentic purchasing workflows while retaining control over user relationships and their advertising revenue, then everyone's incentives align, and DAU (not eCommerce share or take rate) is the only determinant of revenue.1h
Mobile Dev Memo@MobileDevMemoRT @eric_seufert: 30% agent share with a 3% take rate by 2030 is extraordinarily aggressive. Repeat this arithmetic with 5-10% agent shar…41m
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    2 Sources

    Eric Seufert@eric_seufert30% agent share with a 3% take rate by 2030 is extraordinarily aggressive. Repeat this arithmetic with 5-10% agent share and the entire endeavor looks futile / indefensible. Unless, of course, agents don't implement a take rate, which, for many reasons, can't scale to a stable equilibrium. Rather, if agents implement ad partnerships like the one Amazon has already struck with OpenAI, allowing the largest retail platforms to integrate directly into off-platform agentic purchasing workflows while retaining control over user relationships and their advertising revenue, then everyone's incentives align, and DAU (not eCommerce share or take rate) is the only determinant of revenue.1h
    Mobile Dev Memo@MobileDevMemoRT @eric_seufert: 30% agent share with a 3% take rate by 2030 is extraordinarily aggressive. Repeat this arithmetic with 5-10% agent shar…41m
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