Mach33 Research study using 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations finds 96% of scenarios support a $1.77 trillion SpaceX valuation · Digg

/Tech19h ago

Mach33 Research study using 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations finds 96% of scenarios support a $1.77 trillion SpaceX valuation

The analysis modeled 500 variables including chip cost declines

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Original post

Aaron Burnett@aaronburnett

There has been a lot of hand wringing on the appropriate valuation of SpaceX. Some large institutions believe SpaceX can only be valued at half what the market seems to be willing to pay for it. Others are claiming it has 15X appreciation ahead of it.

Almost all of this difference of opinion comes down to how comfortable you are modeling beyond 2030 and what valuation method you use.

2030 valuation using a traditional Gordan DCF produces a very different result than a 2040 EV/EBITDA Multiple. Both have pros and cons. Most analysts don’t really discuss this and lead with a headline number.

We are very comfortable modeling out to 2040, as large portions of what SpaceX is proposing is real world infrastructure, which provides modelable physics constraints to anchor against.

The analysis we released today explores this in-depth, its open to the public all the way through IPO. I highly encourage you check it out prior to then. https://research.33fg.com/analysis/spacex-is-priced-at-the-floor-mach33-spacex-gigamodel-highlights

We’ve run 5,000 monte carlo runs across 500 variables (real number, even though it sounds fake) and three valuation methods.

This video is of a 3D cloud chart showing every simulation outcome expected in valuation output across two of the most impactful variables to the model when using an EV/EBITDA multiple from 2026 to 2040.

The horizontal axis is the steepness of the orbital data center demand S-curve.

The vertical axis is the rate at which chip compute efficiency becomes cheaper.

Each of the 5,000 dots is one simulated future; green dots are the ones where SpaceX's 2040 value clears the $1.77T IPO line, over time.

Under EV/EBITDA valuation through 2040, 96% of our simulated futures clear the expected IPO price once the bell rings Friday.

We aren’t publishing this publicly to tell investors what the stock is worth, we’re publishing this to help investors understand the world of outcomes, what the fundamentals suggest through 2040, and what frankly most analysis simply won’t share.

SpaceX is a generational company working on long term infrastructure harnessing a domain no one has been able to tap in so far: space.

It deserves doing the work as an investor. because this in not financial advice.

The cleanest way to hold SpaceX is a bond stapled to a call option (AI-Compute); Starlink is the bond, the near term SatCom annuity that funds the next flywheel.

Understand the world of outcomes and take your position accordingly.

Comparables and P/E won't take you far enough.

1:48 PM · Jun 9, 2026 · 650K Views

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Elon Musk@elonmusk

@aaronburnett If this is all SpaceX achieves, we will have fallen far short of our goals

3h11.8K52510

Aaron Burnett@aaronburnett

@elonmusk I suspect you will prove us far too conservative as usual

3h1.2K21

Laura Pucci@Laurapucci

@aaronburnett @elonmusk It’s Elon. He will have another baby too to celebrate

2h638

vincent@SPCX100T

@elonmusk @RyanKriser @aaronburnett I'm actually really looking forward to seeing which analyst will be the first to truly understand the real valuation of a Kardashev Type II civilization.

2h1.8K101

Aaron Burnett@aaronburnett

@GJtexconserv @elonmusk I tend to agree. Patient investors get the alpha

3h90561

Vlad Saigau@VladSaigau

@aaronburnett Bit more space chart porn here for anyone who fancies it

6h1.2K121

Aaron Burnett@aaronburnett

That’s the point. The DCF when taking any reasonable future revenues into account goes positive very very fast. You literally have to hand wave the entirety of AI compute away to get to the “there is no value here” you can try to do that of course. But growth investment is about seeing the future before others do, looking backwards is literally the only way to get this wrong.

4h59342

Ronie@RonieJet

@Forbes Historic $1.77T SpaceX IPO set for June 12.

15h4122

(A.J.M.)@0Anamnesis0

@elonmusk @aaronburnett All you will achieve is your satellite internet, and thats all you will have at this point, you're being replaced by more tolerable and qualified innovators.

3h1583

the Fundamental Investor@theFInvestor

@aaronburnett I don’t think the debate is whether it will be massive in 2040. The debate is paying for it in 2026. I expect it will offer a much more reasonable entry point in the next 14 years!

4h7167

NeilT@Exogynous

Just purely on space based DC alone the announcements recently made make start reading.

I've run the numbers a few times now. If SpaceX actually manage to get the facilities producing by the end of 2027, they get 1GW of satellite compute out in 2028. More than 2GW in 2029 and 2030 is liftoff in a big way.

But there is more. The earth based infrastructure required to connect all these nodes? Millions of miles of fibre, millions of network connectors for the fibre, mountains of cable in racks, power infrastructure, transformers, network routers. They all go away. Replaced by discrete 120kw slices all interleaved into Starlink and the Starlink network.

But over and above that is more.

Pick your DC. So Elon says they are chip agnostic. SpaceX will be making the motherboards, PCB design, everything and bonding on the memory and chips.

So want 100,000 GB300? 1,400 satellites. 28 launches. Done. It launches, self assembles, sets up communications and goes live. One 168MW datacentre. Add another 5 and you have 1GW of DC compute. 168 launches.

Then it gets even more interesting. You now have a 1GW datacentre ready to go and it has no power or cooling costs. The hosting fee is agreed around the manufacturing, launch and hosting for the next 5-7 years.

Now tell me how any Earth borne datacentres can compete? Why would you build them on earth? You would need a total revisit on power generation, cooling and how you build out your datacentre.

Even if you moved your datacentre to a vacuum based area with laser comms and ditched all of the fibres and 90% of the switching, you are still paying more for power and more for cooling. Unless you have serious unicorn magic pixie dust solutions.

By 2035 without any serious change in the way earth based datacentres are created and run, the only people not using spaced based DC will be those who are politically or ideologically barred from using them.

It just won't make any sense to do anything else.

When Elon announced that, essentially, they would become chip agnostic on their satellite pcb's he just told the world you can order whatever DC you want in space and we'll build it and launch it for you.

The really hilarious bit is all those people doing their NIMBY dance are going to be looking seriously poe faced in only a decade when everyone says "yeah right, we don't want or need your area, let it rot".

Of course that's just space based DC. Now if we want to talk launch, Lunar bases, SAI and a Mars civilisation with everything that entails. Terafab, did I forget that? Course I did. What bout Terafab's brother on Mars?

The list is as endless as is the space in our solar system.

2h33941

🇺🇸 GJ Patriot@GJtexconserv

@elonmusk @aaronburnett Initial price doesnt matter Performance will adjust

3h1.3K4

Jennifer@danowski52684

@elonmusk @aaronburnett If elon knew me he would be proud of how much better I'm doing

3h203

Matt Powell@MattPowell11559

Oh, boo-fuckin’-hoo, what a crushing disappointment Elon is! Dude just wired the planet with Starlink, made rockets that land like they’re showing off, slapped Neuralink in skulls, and birthed the AI revolution that’d still be sucking on training wheels without him. I’d have retired, snorted coke off hookers, and died happy years ago. Instead the madman fixes my wife’s panic attacks with FSD and builds the only cars on Earth that don’t try to murder my family. Tragic.

3h163

Aaron Burnett@aaronburnett

@VladSaigau very nice halo you've got there

6h4847

Joyce Lynn@JoyceLynnt2bd

@Forbes Reusabilty, foundation for bet. SpaceX rising💫

17h3721

33@thirtythree

@aaronburnett Nice affiliate badge

5h2507

angela@SpirouAngela

@aaronburnett @elonmusk The future of SpaceX being huge is an understatement. It’s positioning itself as the backbone of a multiplanetary future, with massive economic and technological tailwinds.

3h494

Cat Rinn@catrinn_music

@aaronburnett @elonmusk Yah!! 👆THAT’S All fine and good BUT .. that’s BACK looking 👀👉 THIS time in HISTORY will be, loosely defined, as THOSE who HITCHED their wagon 🏇to Elon and those… who DID NOT. 🏖️🥳🚀

3h1173

LMAO!@theLMAOcoin

@elonmusk @aaronburnett

3h1055

/Tech19h ago

Mach33 Research study using 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations finds 96% of scenarios support a $1.77 trillion SpaceX valuation

The analysis modeled 500 variables including chip cost declines

3472.1K491447669.6K

Original post

Aaron Burnett@aaronburnett

There has been a lot of hand wringing on the appropriate valuation of SpaceX. Some large institutions believe SpaceX can only be valued at half what the market seems to be willing to pay for it. Others are claiming it has 15X appreciation ahead of it.

Almost all of this difference of opinion comes down to how comfortable you are modeling beyond 2030 and what valuation method you use.

2030 valuation using a traditional Gordan DCF produces a very different result than a 2040 EV/EBITDA Multiple. Both have pros and cons. Most analysts don’t really discuss this and lead with a headline number.

We are very comfortable modeling out to 2040, as large portions of what SpaceX is proposing is real world infrastructure, which provides modelable physics constraints to anchor against.

The analysis we released today explores this in-depth, its open to the public all the way through IPO. I highly encourage you check it out prior to then. https://research.33fg.com/analysis/spacex-is-priced-at-the-floor-mach33-spacex-gigamodel-highlights

We’ve run 5,000 monte carlo runs across 500 variables (real number, even though it sounds fake) and three valuation methods.

This video is of a 3D cloud chart showing every simulation outcome expected in valuation output across two of the most impactful variables to the model when using an EV/EBITDA multiple from 2026 to 2040.

The horizontal axis is the steepness of the orbital data center demand S-curve.

The vertical axis is the rate at which chip compute efficiency becomes cheaper.

Each of the 5,000 dots is one simulated future; green dots are the ones where SpaceX's 2040 value clears the $1.77T IPO line, over time.

Under EV/EBITDA valuation through 2040, 96% of our simulated futures clear the expected IPO price once the bell rings Friday.

We aren’t publishing this publicly to tell investors what the stock is worth, we’re publishing this to help investors understand the world of outcomes, what the fundamentals suggest through 2040, and what frankly most analysis simply won’t share.

SpaceX is a generational company working on long term infrastructure harnessing a domain no one has been able to tap in so far: space.

It deserves doing the work as an investor. because this in not financial advice.

The cleanest way to hold SpaceX is a bond stapled to a call option (AI-Compute); Starlink is the bond, the near term SatCom annuity that funds the next flywheel.

Understand the world of outcomes and take your position accordingly.

Comparables and P/E won't take you far enough.

1:48 PM · Jun 9, 2026 · 650K Views