Many users criticized the SpaceX IPO valuation projection as priced for perfection with excessive risk and poor reward, while a few praised the table's thorough comparison.
The sales here are actual realized sales for the calendar year of the IPO (as reported). To get a 2026 number for Spacex, I repeated 2025's growth rate. Got about $25B (against last year's $18B), which is roughly where the average estimates seem to be.
@Jesse_Livermore What this table is missing, and it's a big one, is that the overall valuation level of the market was much much lower. This helped many of these companies to rerate upwards in a generally much pricier market. SpaceX is IPOing at near peak price levels folks.
@Jesse_Livermore Should have significantly more risk premium and thus fwd expected return than the S&P. If you buy an ipo like this and just get index returns decades later it was a horrible risk/reward and a bust of an investment.
@Jesse_Livermore AMZN was just a bookstore in 1997 and NVDA was making graphics cards so we could play Red Alert. No one had any idea what they would become at IPO
@Jesse_Livermore So when Jensen says it's like buying Amazon, Google, or Meta or their IPOs, he's full of shit?
@Jesse_Livermore Not buying this IPO. At 70.94x sales, SpaceX is priced for perfection — every success is already priced in, leaving little margin of safety. Historically, no company in this peer group came close to that valuation at IPO.
The price will be halfed after a week, guaranteed
@Jesse_Livermore The thing is, this is an apples to fish comparison because the IPO market cap of every one of those was dramatically lower. Between 1/5000th (Nvidia) and 1/76th (Google), with Apple 1/1000th, and Microsoft roughly 1/2200th.
@Jesse_Livermore
@Jesse_Livermore Guessing you’re not a buyer?
Knowing what we know about $TSLA s/h, do fundamentals matter? I’m not sure they do.
@Jesse_Livermore @BillAckman What if, in planning for space based data center and lunar factories, it is in fact none of those?
@alojoh @Jesse_Livermore Sinking water lowers all ships
@danielcincu Spacex is an older and more mature company that has already driven through much more of its growth runway coming into this. And yet, relative to sales, it's still being valued as if it were a startup.
@danielcincu Agreed, and that further bolsters the bearish implications.
@Jesse_Livermore Need another column: IPO market cap as a % of SPX
@Jesse_Livermore If Tesla is any indicator, you NGMI
@Jesse_Livermore It's so odd that professionals post trailing P/Es and trailing P/S for growth companies. It seems like a psychological justification for a failure to appropriate risk.
@sidprabhu Agreed 100%
@BoozeBreath Yeah, that's a fair point. Tesla has proven that a stock can trade at stupid prices forever (or for the rest of our lives). Like Bitcoin, if the owners aren't inundating the system with new supply, then there's no necessary reason why it has to come down.
@Jesse_Livermore I love how thorough you are on this.
@Jesse_Livermore @BillAckman ~35x with Google and Anthropic deals, is that right?