Users mocked the claim of Anthropic dominating the 2031 AI compute race as Dario's unrealistic fantasy and responded with ridicule and hostility.
Based on 2 visible X reactions from 3 accounts; directional sample.
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@scaling01 me laughing at Dario crying at being forced to include the extinction-event tier cyber-bio-weapon in the subscription plan.
from Dario's wet dreams probably
Let's try to estimate. I believe that by 2028 China has mass production of DUVi tools, they scale and by 2031 have like 400K WPM of "7nm" logic capacity. I think one Huawei 990 wafer scale engine is worth ≈200 H100s. That'd be mere ≈1B H100s/year. AI-2040 in fact predicts more! https://x.com/teortaxesTex/status/2075366652149911925/photo/1
Not implausible that Anthropic leads by that much in the US, though more likely others will resist this winner-take-all trajectory I think 10:1 PRC-US compute gap by 2031 is also plausible. Can deviate in either direction. I'd rather predict 1:5 https://twitter.com/scaling01/status/2075358529448194511
Correction, this mafs doesn't work these engines will have 400 mtr on N+3 DUV process, so 3-4 layers of logic-on-logic. This means you need 3-4 wafers per one engine, and 400K WPM = hard ceiling of 100-133K engines. Implausible
in the race scenario of AI 2040 Anthropic is absolutely dominating in 2031 with Anthropic having 12x more compute than the leading chinese project https://x.com/scaling01/status/2075358529448194511/photo/1
oh and in that scenario we also have this no biggie https://x.com/scaling01/status/2075359018881630676/photo/1
Users mocked the claim of Anthropic dominating the 2031 AI compute race as Dario's unrealistic fantasy and responded with ridicule and hostility.
Based on 2 visible X reactions from 3 accounts; directional sample.
Ask a question below.
Published answers will appear here.
in the race scenario of AI 2040 Anthropic is absolutely dominating in 2031 with Anthropic having 12x more compute than the leading chinese project https://x.com/scaling01/status/2075358529448194511/photo/1