Prediction (which I have made before and which increasingly seems likely) OpenAI is gonna fall, and take a lot down with it.

With SoftBank apparently struggling to get a margin loan against it’s OpenAI shares, it’s maybe time to repost this, from two years ago.

The vast majority of my earlier worries remain:

I was first to call the death of tokenmaxxing (ahead of @zerohedge), among the first (in 2023) to warn that the economics of Generative AI was problematic, and first (also 2023) to warn that OpenAI could turn out to be the WeWork of OpenAI.

In my latest newsletter — drawing on a recent interview I did with @realsteveeisman — I explain how the whole thing might fall apart.

@GaryMarcus Trump filling the liquidity gap tho with US govt backing. OpenAI/Anthropic are too big to fail at this point. Their backers need exit liquidity or the system will collapse in on itself

discussed more here:

@tkanthh i always think of wework, but sure.

@GaryMarcus We've gone from debating model intelligence to debating capital structure.

@GaryMarcus This makes me wonder if Anthropic is following the Openai playbook…building hype around a model that may not offer much that’s actually new.

@GaryMarcus Funding a collateral by debt on that collateral. 😅😂 AI surely innovates the world.

@GaryMarcus Enron 2.0?

@GaryMarcus My strategy analysis!

🔻

@ThatNYCMan @GaryMarcus OpenAI is the first domino. When it goes, a lot of other AI companies will declare bankruptcy, merge, or be acquired at bargain prices.

@GaryMarcus Do you think Anthopic will be worth $10T in 2 years then?

@GaryMarcus Well, Oracle failing to raise debt wasn't.

It's scary just how many red flags are being ignored.

@GaryMarcus that $100 billion dollar position in OpenAI is not even worth $6 billion lol

Altman & Eloon, are the two most dangerous people in the world next to Trump. OpenAI and spacex i pee owe will blow up the financial markets.

@GaryMarcus SoftBank is the biggest scam in the world. It’s the scam behind all of the other tech scams. Rising rates in Japan could be what finally brings down the house of cards.

@GaryMarcus This is why Altman is so thirsty for a bailout.

Anthropic as smug as they might be isn't far behind either, they're financials are little better structurally

I was first to call the death of tokenmaxxing (ahead of @zerohedge) and first (years ago!) to warn the OpenAI could turn out to be the WeWork of OpenAI.

In my latest newsletter — drawing on a recent interview I did with @realsteveeisman — I explain how the whole thing might fall apart.

@GaryMarcus when your own loans get denied to fund you, maybe the metric is trying to tell you something?

@IamSpartacus10 @ThatNYCMan see my new substack on exactly that