Source Posts on X
@RyanGreenblatt I'm just having fun the catch-up effects are not negligible but I think you underestimate that American labs are also *slowing down* Chinese ones. They're really, really cash-starved. They have 3-10x fewer staff, even aside from GPUs. If the US takes itself out, this changes.
@RyanGreenblatt there's the rest of the world that would buy Chinese tokens if they were cost-competitive (i think they mostly aren't right now). Open sourcing in my theory is partially a response to compute scarcity (they cannot saturate supply anyway) Chinese chips are also underfunded rn
@teortaxesTex Yeah, that's fair, but also they still would have trouble buying GPUs. (And I'm not sure how the revenue ramp would go given open-weight and western companies maybe not buying.) I was trying to mostly ignore this sort of thing for the purpose of the hypothetical.