Panel prices fell 50% over the last five years.
> Everyone thought falling solar panel costs reflected some sort of technological leap, and lapped up the cheap panels. It in fact did. Even if they raise panel prices by like 40% they will still face no competition. That's how it works.
Many users defend China's low-cost solar panels as profitable and beneficial despite subsidies, while some criticize government support and resulting overcapacity.
"Solar panels were never cheap, it's just subsidies" is a myopic take. Prices have come down about 80% in the past decade and 50% in the past five years. If they now need to rise 10-20% to restore profitability then "only" 95-98% of the cost reduction in the past 10yrs is real.
@teortaxesTex It's funny how many people annoyedly tut-tut Chinese firms for racing towards zero margin. God forbid anything be literally as cheap as it possibly can be.
@teortaxesTex When you look at how little money was lost on the solar industry, it's pretty crazy. As a whole the industry is still profitable if you add together the years. And the country got a ton of energy.
@wxchris3 Yeap solar panels are $100/kW before tariffs, and installed cost in the U.S. is what $3000 so a few other things are going on. Yet solar is the lowest-cost power generation there too.
@laurimyllyvirta It's not just necessary cost of production but how the banking system function. Public credit can do things for cheaper then private credit systems. How the banking system creates the money supply effects the cost structure & how globally competitive the economy is.
@wxchris3 I've made the points multiple times that 1) the panels and other cleantech kit are a small fraction of the value of cleantech investment 2) cost of solar is very insensitive to the price of panels now.
@laurimyllyvirta I know your focus is China, but US solar PPA prices are up 2x since '21 (Q1 '26 is +13% yoy) All of the downstream stuff has gotten considerably more expensive, much faster than inflation. We are not expanding mining cap fast enough to do AI+electrify everything.
@LinusMixson @teortaxesTex Nobody hates market competition like a capitalist
@hunterx11 @LinusMixson @teortaxesTex > market competition Chinese government subsidizes 40% of capital cost for equipment
@laurimyllyvirta During the Civil War when Abraham Lincoln went to banks "private credit" to fund the Union they wanted exorbitant interest. What he did instead was private credit, Greenbacks being the liability of the state, the Confederacy went with Private Credit financing.
@LinusMixson @teortaxesTex Yes! Guess they don’t want the AI hype train to stop. Everybody is still mad-crowding their way to collective wisdom
@laurimyllyvirta Sure, still a great industrial feast, but it breaks the mantra reciting “PV prices will keep on going down”. They won’t.
@laurimyllyvirta See the South exported Cotton to the City of London for gold and private credit for the domestic money supply. Henry Carey Abraham Lincoln's Chief Economist said you don't have to export for gold or private credit from the City of London you can issue Greenbacks.
@laurimyllyvirta I’ve found many of her long narratives convoluted, which has led me to stop reading them. I might not agree with many of yours, but the logic you put forward is clear and thoughtful.
@LinusMixson @teortaxesTex Saudi oil sheikhs subsidizing taxi service CCP subsidizing global south solar is this real communism being tried?
@teortaxesTex The investment needed to make solar affordable is substantial. America invested heavily in oil and gas infrastructure to block renewables. Once installed, oil and gas systems lock the industry in, requiring ongoing purchases.
@teortaxesTex 40% will make European panels a buy. Which in turn will probably drop the price a bit with time
@laurimyllyvirta With Curtis Yarvin CEO states being promoted this is a modern version of the Confederacy and Private Credit interest against against an Abraham Lincoln who was promoting emancipation and public credit.
@CandideIII @hunterx11 @teortaxesTex It's charming that you think regional government bears the same relation to the global market as it does it national markets.
@akriti__gupta @teortaxesTex ✨🍷🍰😬🌾📷
Panel prices fell 50% over the last five years.
> Everyone thought falling solar panel costs reflected some sort of technological leap, and lapped up the cheap panels. It in fact did. Even if they raise panel prices by like 40% they will still face no competition. That's how it works.
