wow. Well @GavinSBaker I'm afraid to say that you're wrong about distillation, and more obviously you should get your terms straight. Only the Chinese have ever released frontier models with open weights. You mean "released at all".
One year ago: China had world-class AI distillation. DeepSeek proved it.
Next year: the pipeline may be empty.
Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker of Atreides Management told @jordihays on @tbpn: China's distillation advantage is entirely dependent on access to US frontier models released open-weight. Once that stops - and Baker thinks it's already stopping - the 100,000-endpoint distillation machine has nothing to run through it.
Export controls are the second pressure. No H100s. No frontier training. No catching up through hardware.
The gap was always narrower than it appeared. And it's widening again.
What this means for investment theses that assume China AI parity: https://podcastalpha.substack.com/p/gavin-baker-spacex-post-ipo-compute-case-token-path
Source: TBPN - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PW5n3ZnEJN0
