/Tech1h ago

SpaceX IPO Draws Caution Over Record-Low 4.3% Float

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#178

Original post

Gary Marcus@GaryMarcus#178inTech

For those wondering:

I am not buying SpaceX.

I am not shorting SpaceX.

I am staying the F away.

Why? Because the “float” is so thin, it’s easy to manipulate the stock. (If you don’t know what that means, you are definitely in for a ride.)

I want no part of it.

Technosmith ✘@technosmith

SpaceX’s IPO offered a mere 4.3% float, leaving only a small fraction of shares tradable on Day One

One of the lowest free floats in IPO history $SPCX

For additional context

Google (2004 IPO): ~18% Facebook (2012 IPO): ~18% Alibaba (2014 IPO): ~15% Saudi Aramco (2019 IPO): 1.5%

7:38 AM · Jun 12, 2026 · 35.1K Views

Sentiment

Many users echo Gary Marcus in avoiding SpaceX stock over its record-low float and manipulation risks while a few defend long-term holding for wealth.

Pos

10.0%

Neg

90.0%

23 comments with sentiment.

Cluster Engagement

Posts from X

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Gary Marcus@GaryMarcus

@kaya85kaya ask yourself why they didn’t.

1h3667

LIKES8

Ben Horne@benjamin_horne

@GaryMarcus Same. Company is obviously absurdly overvalued but I have no clue what the stock will do.

Anyone who claims they do is a liar.

1h2698

RETWEETS13

Dave Troy@davetroy

This is the correct take. The whole thing is a manipulation, and you will get burned if you touch it in any capacity.

Gary Marcus@GaryMarcus

For those wondering:

I am not buying SpaceX.

I am not shorting SpaceX.

I am staying the F away.

Why? Because the “float” is so thin, it’s easy to manipulate the stock. (If you don’t know what that means, you are definitely in for a ride.)

I want no part of it.

1h9.4K1989

REPLIES2

pcsfast@cps23800

@GaryMarcus Gary, nobody was wondering and at this point, I don’t think anyone cares. We already knew that was case. The last three weeks your EDS is beyond comprehension. It’s amazing that somebody with the level of intelligence that you have can be this far off the deep end.

39m77

Tim@Timmetie

@GaryMarcus Jup, Musk saw how meme stocks like dogecoin worked at scale and realized you can definitely manipulate stocks of large companies and hes been doing it to Tesla since forever, especially around earning calls.

1h1422

deactivated@colemarie

@davetroy I'm not a rich person investing in things, but if I were, I'd invest in Ukrainian drone tech. That's the cutting edge right there. SpaceX is a disaster waiting to happen.

1h661

PaulDelaware #NAFO 💙💛 🇺🇦Anti-Fascism@PaulDelaware

Listen up, y’all!

If for some unfathomable reason you haven’t listened to Gary before, now’s the fucking time to listen.

Gary Marcus@GaryMarcus

For those wondering:

I am not buying SpaceX.

I am not shorting SpaceX.

I am staying the F away.

Why? Because the “float” is so thin, it’s easy to manipulate the stock. (If you don’t know what that means, you are definitely in for a ride.)

I want no part of it.

36m1.3K61

I Kaya@kaya85kaya

@GaryMarcus I'm not sure

But I think the next 5 years if the Ai hype doesn't die down will require ~$3T in equity sales by the big Ai companies to pay for the ~$7T capex

SpaceX Google Meta Amazon Microsoft Oracle OpenAi Anthropic Etc

Might need to dilute 1% a quarter to pay for the Capex

54m1691

Frank Rundatz@FrankRundatz

SpaceX’s thin float can be visualized by imagining the float being 1 share.

One person that owns that share and one person who wants to make it appear valuable can manipulate the “Market Price” of SpaceX however they want. The seller could sell it to the buyer for $1 million and the “Market Price” of one share would be $1 million. This would make the Market Cap appear to be quadrillions of dollars.

Now, that’s a silly example for illustrative purposes only.

But the fact that SpaceX is only floating 4.3% of all shares means that manipulating the price will be easier than if they were floating the typical 15%-25% of the company.

Said another way, it’s easier to manipulate the Market Price for a stock if your friends own 95.7% of a stock than if your friends only owned 75%.

1h1441

korb@gerti_t

@GaryMarcus They won't be painting the tape will they ?

1h148

Cruthaifios@cruthaifios

@GaryMarcus The companies that facilitate IPOs desperately need a big win to ensure they can encourage more IPOs which make them more money

54m131

Bewildered Beast@itsbewildered

@GaryMarcus I don't have time in the day to do either, and the market has become rife with a small number of connected and dedicated winners. Retail investors are prey animals in that environment, and I refuse to be one. I'm gonna keep out of it until I see a giant downturn to buy in at.

1h127

jake@jak3

@davetroy And for traders, being the useful idiot here is by providing liquidity-- on either side.

1h391

jklre@pwnalisa1

@GaryMarcus I put in a limit order at $25 a share expecting it to tank because i'm a degenerate

1h101

Rubio's Shoes@RobReiner61509

@GaryMarcus Ultimately taxpayers are on the hook now.

One more " too big to fail " pig to feed.

51m291

Terence Plizga | terenceplizga@bsky.social@TerencePlizga

@GaryMarcus SpaceX is in trouble. Without Starlink launches, it would go bankrupt. With over 10k Starlink satellites in orbit, we don’t need any more. And their xAI is burning billions while losing the AI race. Musk is nothing more than a bullshit artist.

44m81