Lee Calls Optimistic AI Future Banal but Positive
Tech journalist argues optimistic AI scenarios lack drama unlike dystopian alternatives.
Tech journalist Lee posted that optimistic AI visions describe a world much like today except people are richer, live longer, and skip tasks such as driving or taxes. He noted that pessimistic scenarios draw more interest because they feature dramatic events like widespread job loss or death. Lee added that computers and the internet produced similar incremental gains without reshaping homes, cars, or daily routines. Replies from Arvind Narayanan and Jason Crawford questioned whether multiple advances could compound into unrecognizable change or whether stronger positive visions are possible.
People say nobody has a positive vision for an AI future. The problem is that the optimistic vision is a little banal: the world looks largely the same as it does now except that people are richer, we live longer, and we get to skip hassles like driving or doing our taxes.
Reactions
7 postsTB 
Timothy B. Lee@binarybitsPessimistic visions are more interesting because they envision dramatic stuff happening like everyone losing their job or dying. But the world is the way it is now because people mostly like it this way. Most of the big changes you can imagine would be bad for most people.
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TB Timothy B. Lee@binarybitsThis was also true for computers and the Internet. They made us richer, eliminated some day-to-day hassles, and transformed media. But our homes, cars, hospitals, schools, vacations, etc. don't look that different because we value the same stuff our grandparents did.
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AN Arvind Narayanan@random_walkerGreat insight. But why is this vision considered banal? Stack 10 or 20 of these advances like self-driving and medical breakthroughs, and life will feel unrecognizably different. That's nothing unprecedented, of course. It's been happening consistently for the last few…
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AN Arvind Narayanan@random_walkerA closely related and interesting post about AI optimism in China as a result of "technological memory".
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CE Cognitive Endomorphism@supreme__sharmapeople also say new gen of phone is pretty much like the old gen ad nauseum. but they refuse to use 3+ generation older phones. i.e humans are frogs in boiling pot and are terrible at accounting for incremental changes.
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JC Jason Crawford@jasoncrawford@binarybits That's *your* weak positive vision! Other people have stronger visions, but you don't believe in them. I wrote about this:
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