Georgia, Utah lead USA TODAY’s CFP projection. Cue the head-to-head headache.

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USA TODAY’s projected top four

Paul Myerberg’s forecast: Source

1. Georgia (8-1)
2. Utah (9-0)
3. Alabama (7-2)
4. Notre Dame (8-1)

Myerberg expects Georgia’s road wins against Alabama and Ole Miss to carry more weight than Utah’s unbeaten record and victory over BYU. Utah also has a win against Houston, but he predicts the Bulldogs will move up from second to replace Miami at the top. Source Source

Alabama’s projected move from fifth to third follows its road win against LSU. Myerberg sees that result as a reason the Tide could pass Indiana, which was idle. Two losses, in this forecast, don’t prevent a top-three address. Source Source

The scoreboard makes its case

Myerberg projects Notre Dame jumping from No. 11 to fourth and Miami falling from first to fifth, with both teams now 8-1. Beat the top-ranked team, move ahead of it: a refreshingly short argument, if the committee accepts it. Source

Myerberg also sees a case for keeping Miami ahead of Notre Dame. The Hurricanes played without star receiver Malachi Toney, and he suggests that absence could sway how the committee weighs the loss. Source Source

Tennessee beat Alabama 26-10 in October and just defeated Kentucky 34-6. Yet USA TODAY’s projection has Alabama third and Tennessee ninth, both at 7-2. That’s six ranking places between teams whose meeting wasn’t exactly a coin flip. Source

Sports Illustrated’s Tim Capurso asks whether the committee will narrow the Alabama–Tennessee gap enough for their head-to-head result to matter. Source

Further down, Myerberg projects Ohio State falling from No. 12 to around No. 20 after a loss to Oregon dropped the Buckeyes to 6-3. Source