LeoLabs told Axios the apparently deliberate approach was rare, while its intent remains uncertain.
Tracking firm LeoLabs told Axios that Russia's Cosmos 2612 moved from more than 200 miles away to about three miles from ICEYE-X36 in a day. Analysts called the approach unusual and potentially deliberate, but its purpose remains unknown.
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Russia's Cosmos 2612 satellite moved to within roughly three miles of U.S.-owned commercial imaging satellite ICEYE-X36, according to tracking data described by LeoLabs to Axios. The two spacecraft had been more than 200 miles apart a day earlier.
Still waiting for further tracking data to confirm this, but this seems an unprecedented step by Russia if correct. I don't think it quite violates the Outer Space Treaty though (but IANAL)
@avrnz New TLEs show that K2612 made a manuever on Oct 16 and is now stationkeeping within 5 km or less of ICEYE X36. To my knowledge this is the first LEO rendezvous of two active satellites where the owner of one of the sats did not give approval.
LeoLabs said the movement appeared to be a deliberate approach and called the behavior relatively uncommon in low Earth orbit. The company did not assign a motive, saying the satellite's intent remained uncertain and warranted continued monitoring.
Jonathan McDowell wrote that new public orbital data indicated K2612 maneuvered on October 16 and began holding position within five kilometers, or about three miles, of ICEYE-X36.
McDowell said that, to his knowledge, this could be the first rendezvous between two active low-Earth-orbit satellites conducted without one operator's approval. He quickly added that further tracking was needed and described the event as unprecedented only if the data held up.
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Analysts told Axios that Cosmos 2612 changed its altitude, orbital plane and speed, using fuel to close the distance. Aaron Brynildson, a University of Mississippi space-law professor, said there is no strict legal limit on satellite proximity, though operators generally stay more than six miles apart. At shorter distances, simultaneous maneuvers can increase collision risk, he said.
Axios reported that a Ukrainian official confirmed the military uses ICEYE services but could not say whether ICEYE-X36 supports Ukraine. The Defense Department and ICEYE declined to comment on the recent movement. With no public explanation for the maneuver, its purpose remains unknown.
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