Trump’s tariffs expected to bring in $1 trillion less than expected – and that could drastically change his $2,000 check plan

The Congressional Budget Office's recent estimate reveals that President Trump's tariffs are expected to generate $1 trillion less than anticipated, potentially jeopardizing his plan to distribute $2,000 checks to U.S. citizens. The tariffs, initially projected to reduce the national deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade, are now expected to yield only $3 trillion, falling short of the original forecast and making a minimal impact on the national debt, which stands at $38 trillion. Despite the downgrade, the White House maintains that the tariffs will significantly benefit the federal government, with costs borne by foreign exporters. However, the revised forecast complicates Trump's plan to issue tariff dividend checks, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offering vague details on the potential forms of the dividend. Betting markets currently assign a low probability of the checks being issued, with odds at 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.