Middle East Report

James discusses on Radio Islam the prospects of a US military attack on Iran, the fallout of the dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Africa, and Israeli support for the UAE in its Washington-focused war of words with the kingdom.

To listen the podcast  or watch the video, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/middle-east-report-6ad

Transcript

[Anchor] This morning's Middle East report, Iran and the United States as well as various power struggles happening between Saudi and the UAE, the United Arab Emirates, not just in Yemen, not just in the whole of Africa or Sudan, but in other places as well. Is this the new power struggle that we are going to see in the decade ahead? No longer Iran and Saudi Arabia, but rather Saudi Arabia and the UAE with Middle Eastern countries being forced to take sides on either one.

Anyway, to get into the latest discussions coming out of that part of the world, we are joined by James M. Dorsey, award-winning scholar and journalist with a different perspective on the Middle East and a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

You can follow James as we've always liked to announce at jamesmdorsey.substack.com and listen to or subscribe to James' newsletter and blog, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey. Good day to James. Thank you for joining us.

[James M. Dorsey] Good morning. Happy Ramadan. Pleasure to be with you.

[Anchor] And indeed, pleasant greetings to you too, James, and thank you for the warm ones. James, getting into our discussion, Iran and the United States. Crawl back from the brink, or is it a crawl back from the brink?

Are we likely to see Obama 2.0 when it comes to Iran and the United States, this time under Trump? Some say likely not, but the question is for how long, James?

[James M. Dorsey] Indeed, rather than creating an environment conducive to compromise, Trump's military buildup in the Middle East and continued threats of attacking Iran makes any concession Iran offers look like a surrender. Trump's concept of peace making is rooted in an approach that involves bullying, coercion, and intimidation. He has given Iran 10 days to come to the table on his terms.

It's hard to see Iran caving in. Iran put a good face on this week's talks in Geneva between US and Iranian negotiators, even though the two countries are nowhere closer to narrowing their differences, which means that the risk of a military confrontation remains high. With that in mind, how bad things can get will depend on the nature of a potential US attack, which in turn will determine how Iran responds.

Trump's problem is that after unilaterally walking away from the 2015 international agreement that curbed Iran's nuclear programme, he needs to demonstrate that he can produce a new agreement that is significantly better. That limits Trump's ability to find a compromise that would allow him and Iran to save face.

[Anchor] James, moving the discussion of course to Donald Trump's Board of Peace. So it was it was crunch time when Donald Trump's board of peace met in Washington this week to finalise the implementation of the second phase of the president's Gaza ceasefire plan. And you know, it's been called of course Donald Trump's Board of Peace, but what are we to make of it and how did that meeting go, James?

[James M. Dorsey] The Board of Peace and the reality of Gaza seem worlds apart despite Trump announcing pledges of some 17 billion dollars for Gaza, the willingness of five nations, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Azerbaijan, and Albania to contribute to an international stabilisation force for the strip, and the creation of a Palestinian police force. The Board's vision for Gaza involving high-rises, luxury hotels, and artificial islands is a far cry from the needs of a traumatised population that lives in a moonscape-like wasteland. Ali Shaath, the head of the committee of Palestinian technocrats tasked with running Gaza's day-to-day affairs under the board's supervision, said as much when he listed his priorities, security, job creation, emergency relief, and restoration of services.

In addition, the international forces mandate remains nebulous. Indonesia, which will supply the force's deputy commander and largest contingent, sees its role as supporting humanitarian efforts rather than disarming Hamas and demilitarising Gaza as Israel demands. Like with Iran, Hamas is unlikely to unconditionally decommission what heavy weaponry it has left, raising the spectre of a renewed Israeli assault on the war-ravaged strip.

[Anchor] James, African leaders meeting in Addis Ababa this weekend and continuing to struggle to remain on the sidelines of a Saudi-UAE dispute that is playing out in multiple, you know, countries. You have Africa, Yemen, which is not technically, of course, in Africa, but just across the DC there from a regional point of view, one in the same region. And how are we to likely see this meeting go, noting that it's unlikely that everybody is going to remain out of this foray between the Saudi and UAE, the rising power struggle in the Middle East?

[James M. Dorsey] African leaders walked a thin line at this month's African Union summit, despite much of the escalating dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates playing out on African soil in fractured countries like Somalia, Sudan, and Libya. The leaders were careful not to choose sides between the two wealthy Gulf states that have invested heavily in Africa. Even so, African leaders fear that the dispute will expand beyond the horn of Africa into the Sahel.

At the heart of the dispute are competing Saudi and UAE ambitions for regional dominance. African leaders fear that Emirati support for secessionist and rebel forces will destabilise rather than stabilise countries. Nevertheless, they are careful not to cross the UAE, given its expeditionary military presence on the African continent and its financial and economic networks.

So far, Somalia is the exception to the rule. Somalia cut all ties with the UAE after Israel, with Emirati help, established diplomatic relations with the breakaway republic of Somaliland.

[Anchor] Saudi-UAE competition, James, for regional hegemony has shifted from the horn of Africa. I mean, we discussed in the previous mention there, the previous statement that it was concentrated in parts of Africa. But in reality, it's gone further than the Red Sea battlefields to the parlours of Washington, D.C., with Israel fuelling the fires. Israel, no doubt, has made it clear on which side it stands for a while now. But how are we to see this play out in an international scenario with Washington also being a political battleground between the Saudi and the UAE?

[James M. Dorsey] U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham made that clear when he this week announced that the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, had asked him to publicly convey his amazement at the level of cooperation between Israel and the UAE. Netanyahu's message was designed to help the UAE garner increased favour among supporters of Israel in the United States, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE wage an information war that has put the kingdom on the defensive in the U.S. capital. Graham's unvarnished portrayal of the Israeli-Emirati relationship came on the heels of comments suggesting that he blames Saudi Arabia for escalating tensions between the kingdom and the UAE.

Emirati influencers and pro-Israeli media and pundits accused Saudi Arabia of reverting to anti-Semitic tropes and harsher anti-Israel rhetoric and pivoting away from establishing formal ties with Israel and towards alliances with alleged Islamists like Qatar and Turkey. In response to the Israeli and Emirati allegations, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan this week met Rabbi Yehuda Kaploun, the U.S. anti-Semitism envoy on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.

[Anchor] James Dorsey, thank you for joining us on Radio Islam International this Friday morning for us here, this first Friday of Ramadan, and have a good day and good weekend ahead of you, James.

[James M. Dorsey] Thank you for having me and I wish you all the best.