Middle East Report

James discusses Iran, Gaza, and the Saudi-United Arabs Emirates dispute in Radio Islam’s Middle East Report.

To watch the video, or listen to the podcast, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/middle-east-report-6ca

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Transcript

[Anchor] Time for the weekly edition of the Middle East Report, and we're joined by James Dorsey. Good morning, James, and welcome to the programme.

[James M. Dorsey] Good morning. Always good to be with you.

[Anchor] James, a U.S. military intervention in Iran seems almost inevitable, yet the risk of intervention far exceeds any perceived benefits.

[James M. Dorsey] President Donald Trump's belief in the power of bullying, intimidation, and coercion may face its most important litmus test to date in Iran, where the government shows no signs of backing down despite a U.S. military buildup. Unlike in Venezuela, a U.S. military intervention is more likely to have dire consequences rather than lead to relatively smooth moderation of policy or regime change. It could suck the U.S. into a region-wide war, with Iran retaliating against Israel, U.S. facilities in the Gulf, and oil and other critical infrastructure. It could also lead to countries like Israel, Turkey, and Azerbaijan supporting restless ethnic minorities, raising the spectre of a fracturing of Iran. Turkish and Azeri intervention to protect Iran's Azeri minority could extend a regional war not just to the Gulf and Israel, but also to the Caucasus. The problem is that neither Trump nor Iran are leaving themselves a face-saving option to avoid a military confrontation despite the inevitable devastating consequences.

[Anchor] U.S. President Donald Trump's Board of Peace faces its first litmus test with the opening of the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt in the coming days.

[James M. Dorsey] The prospects don't bode well for ordinary Gazans, with Trump's Board of Peace's cards stacked in Israel's favour. Who controls the crossing, Gaza's only link to the world beyond Israel, will tell much of how the Board envisions developments in post-war Gaza, even though few doubt that Israel will decide who can enter and exit, and what goods, if any, it will allow in. The proof will be in Rafah's pudding.

The likelihood that Israel will be the crossing's ultimate arbiter will cement the conviction among Palestinians, and many in the international community, that implementing the ceasefire plan will be on Israel's terms, rather than equitably consider Israeli and Palestinian concerns. Despite Palestinians wanting the crossing to open on whatever terms.

[Anchor] Disarmament of Hamas is the next battleground on which Israel and Hamas will attempt to shape Gaza's future in their mould.

[James M. Dorsey] There is no doubt that Hamas either needs to disarm or be integrated into a unified Palestinian police force that maintains law and order in the Strip. Without disarmament, as well as an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the introduction of an international stabilisation force, relief and rehabilitation efforts will remain hampered, and reconstruction will not get off the ground. The problem is that the Board's implementation of the second phase of Trump's Gaza ceasefire plan is off to a problematic start, with Arab and Muslim-majority countries reluctant to contribute to an international stabilisation force without an agreement with Hamas on disarmament.

In the absence of such an agreement, various supporters of Trump are suggesting that private security companies could disarm the group. Last year, private security protecting the controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation killed some 2,000 innocent Palestinians.

[Anchor] A Saudi media campaign against the United Arab Emirates reflects hardening Saudi attitudes against Israel, which supports the UAE's strategy of supporting rebel and secessionist forces in countries like Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, and Libya.

[James M. Dorsey] Pro-Israel voices have joined a Saudi media campaign against the United Arab Emirates as the Kingdom hardens its attitude towards Israel. Saudi voices charge that the UAE is an infidel Zionist stooge. The media campaign echoes the information war waged during the three-and-a-half-year-long Saudi-UAE-led economic and diplomatic boycott of Qatar that was lifted in 2021.

Israel backs the UAE's support for rebel and secessionist forces, much like it projects itself as a protector of minorities such as the Druze in Syria, with prospects for Saudi recognition of Israel anytime soon, all but non-existent. Leading American Jewish and pro-Israel groups accuse the Kingdom of reverting to longstanding Islamist and anti-Semitic messaging, including conspiracy theories and attacks on the UAE's diplomatic relations with Israel. The groups aim to persuade the Trump administration to be more critical of Saudi Arabia's recent regional efforts to coordinate more closely with countries like Turkey and Qatar that have relations with Hamas.

[Anchor] James, thank you for your time.