IndieWire describes an Oscar campaign for Tom Cruise in 'Digger,' questioning whether he'll do what it takes to win. The outlet says Warner Bros. is going all in to promote him, but the $160 million film faces box office struggles. A September 20, 2026 post comparing Oscar probabilities listed Polymarket at 11% and Precision at 21.5% for Cruise to win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards—a 10.5-percentage-point gap. The post stressed that these were probabilities, not nomination or award results.