AI Judge changed title after evaluation, original title: "Max Novendstern connects Peter Thiel’s view of indefinite optimism as the weakest strategic quadrant to Vitalik Buterin’s Ethereum virtual machine and OpenAI’s early transformer scaling bets"
Beff applies the idea to stochastic physics in Extropic hardware.
roon#44
Thiel apparently liked to say that “indefinite optimism” was the worse of all quadrants. But that surely was the spirit Vitalik was in when he said, “maybe we stick a Virtual Machine onchain,” or OpenAI was in when they said, “maybe we crank transformers to the max.”
Demanding determinateness was the midwit trap that exited you from the timeline.
Many users support indefinite optimism for powering Ethereum VM, OpenAI transformer, and stochastic hardware bets because of its efficiency focus and bold vision, while others mock the claims as hindsight bias or respond with insults.
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"maybe we could use the stochastic physics of hardware to run probabilistic algorithms" indefinite optimism behind @extropic
Thiel apparently liked to say that “indefinite optimism” was the worse of all quadrants. But that surely was the spirit Vitalik was in when he said, “maybe we stick a Virtual Machine onchain,” or OpenAI was in when they said, “maybe we crank transformers to the max.”
Demanding determinateness was the midwit trap that exited you from the timeline.
@mnovendstern Underrated skill is waiting till the right moment to get definite
@mnovendstern @pmarca New verifiers are always fuzzy, initially. Indefinite optimism as complacency is different than keeping the faith in the idea maze.
@mnovendstern agree there's some complexity in those because of their platform nature. but i think thiel would consider both of those definite optimism not indefinite.
@tszzl @mnovendstern When did Peter thiel say it was the worst quadrant he literally says it’s the best in zero to one
@tszzl @mnovendstern Mofo you better watch that diss track I made with your name in it will call the song roon pewns noobs
@mnovendstern .
@mnovendstern in both cases, they were focused and did not take a porfolio approach, they were both definite optimism.
@tszzl @mnovendstern yann also has indefinite optimism. luck helps.
@mnovendstern :) https://open.substack.com/pub/0xsd/p/peter-thiel-was-wrong-so-far?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=76nrh
@mnovendstern @pmarca Ah yes, the bold strategy of calling hindsight vision,and everyone else midwits. Funny how every gamble looks like genius once it lands.
@mnovendstern I don’t think exploration within a defined worldview qualifies as indefinite optimism. OAI & Vitalik both had strong theses despite uncertainty
@tszzl @mnovendstern Only a few people saw that other that I posted so we’re gucci
@mnovendstern @tszzl Passivity is the real enemy it seems.
@mnovendstern Determinate plans are useful after the weird bet starts working. Before that, they can become credentialed reasons not to try the obviously stupid thing that opens the new branch.
@mnovendstern Climbing the tech tree in a generative way seems closer to definite optimism than "history inherently moves towards progress." Though it's not pure definite optimism.
@tszzl @mnovendstern Indefinite optimism unlocked
@mnovendstern No they had a plan, even if it wasn’t good or might not work. Those sentences alone is from someone who has been thinking about it for long , to come up with such metaphor. That’s what definite optimism refers to in the earliest
@mnovendstern then try pragmatic optimism
@tszzl @mnovendstern tbh I don’t think @mnovendstern examples count as indefinite