Metaculus predictions show the median timeline to AGI fell from 50 years to seven years between 2020 and 2024

— Major AI model releases like GPT-4 drove the decline.

Original post

OPRH#887Robin Hanson|@ROBINHANSON

I'm old enough to remember that during the DotCom boom, enthusiasts kept smugly dismissing the usual authorities because they just didn't "get it".

9:19 AM · May 29, 2026 View on X