A rough calculation puts frontier AI models’ potential annual revenue below $250 billion

A user’s back-of-the-envelope calculation starts with an estimate of fewer than 50 million software engineers worldwide, then assumes 100 million customers pay an average of $200 a month, including API spending. That would put annual revenue for frontier AI models below $250 billion across all providers. The user puts Anthropic and OpenAI at roughly $75 billion in annual recurring revenue and says that figure is flattening, which they suggest may mean the companies are closer to a ceiling than their valuations imply. They compare the math with TSMC’s roughly $2 trillion valuation and $120 billion in revenue.