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    AI stock valuations and conflicting bets on the boom

    The post quotes Atreides CIO Gavin Baker calling Nvidia’s price-to-earnings ratio “really low” and putting memory makers at 3–5 times earnings.

    RP
    2 Sources, 18d ago, first seen 18d ago

    TLDR

    A post quotes Atreides CIO Gavin Baker saying valuations across AI companies “just can’t all be accurate.” The post’s broader argument is that related stocks imply inconsistent expectations for data center growth. Its commentary says infrastructure suppliers should command a premium if electricity, cooling and physical capacity are scarce. If accelerated computing is still the scarce resource, it argues, Nvidia and memory makers are probably too cheap relative to the rest of the chain. It also argues that Broadcom could grow quickly in custom chips without taking the most valuable parts of Nvidia’s growth.

    Combined views

    17.2K

    2 Sources, first seen 18d ago

    Combined views

    17.2K

    2 Sources, first seen 18d ago

    105 likes
    105 likes
    6 comments
    70 saves
    26 reposts

    Sentiment

    Positive——Negative

    Summary

    Not enough discussion yet.

    No sentiment analysis available yet.

    6 comments
    70 saves
    26 reposts

    Sentiment

    Positive——Negative

    Summary

    Not enough discussion yet.

    No sentiment analysis available yet.

    Today's Rank

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    Today's Rank

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    2 Sources

    @rohanpaul_ai"If you look at the valuations for all these AI names, they just can't all be accurate. You have memory makers at 3-5X PE. You have NVIDIA at a really low PE." ~ @GavinSBaker, Managing Partner & CIO of Atreides ($11B AUM). Nvidia, memory, custom chips, optical networking, power equipment, cooling systems and data center builders are all being treated as winners of the same spending boom. But each bucket is pricing a different version of the boom. There is Cross-sectionally inefficiency, i.e. the market is not ranking related AI companies consistently, because one group implies massive data center growth while another group implies slower or riskier growth. A boom does not automatically make every supplier a compounder, because the profit pool moves toward whatever is hardest to substitute, hardest to delay, and hardest for customers to bargain down. If the scarce thing is electricity, cooling, and physical capacity, then infrastructure suppliers should command the premium. If the scarce thing is still accelerated compute, then Nvidia and memory are probably too cheap relative to the rest of the chain. The ASIC narrative adds another layer of fog. Broadcom can be growing fast in custom chips and still not be taking the most valuable parts of Nvidia’s growth. ---- From " All-In Podcast" YouTube channel, (link in comment)

    2 Sources

    @rohanpaul_ai"If you look at the valuations for all these AI names, they just can't all be accurate. You have memory makers at 3-5X PE. You have NVIDIA at a really low PE." ~ @GavinSBaker, Managing Partner & CIO of Atreides ($11B AUM). Nvidia, memory, custom chips, optical networking, power equipment, cooling systems and data center builders are all being treated as winners of the same spending boom. But each bucket is pricing a different version of the boom. There is Cross-sectionally inefficiency, i.e. the market is not ranking related AI companies consistently, because one group implies massive data center growth while another group implies slower or riskier growth. A boom does not automatically make every supplier a compounder, because the profit pool moves toward whatever is hardest to substitute, hardest to delay, and hardest for customers to bargain down. If the scarce thing is electricity, cooling, and physical capacity, then infrastructure suppliers should command the premium. If the scarce thing is still accelerated compute, then Nvidia and memory are probably too cheap relative to the rest of the chain. The ASIC narrative adds another layer of fog. Broadcom can be growing fast in custom chips and still not be taking the most valuable parts of Nvidia’s growth. ---- From " All-In Podcast" YouTube channel, (link in comment)