Poll Shows Strong Skepticism Toward OpenAI IPO

not scientific, but doesn’t bode well for OpenAI.

if the IPO goes badly, their luck may run out.

@GaryMarcus Spacex not getting 80% support on this platform is maybe the more surprising thing

@GaryMarcus 155 sample size, not bad!

@acekingspades Yes, but they have a product. SpaceX is investing untold billions in the unproven hope something comes out. While Tesla can't even make FSD work, and xAI failed on AI.

So, fundamentals are better for OpenAI. Musk is aiming too high and has checkered record.

@AndyXAndersen Openai is operating at a massive loss.

@AndyXAndersen @GaryMarcus OpenAI is under real threat of extinction, SpaceX isn't.

@GaryMarcus Im with u and ur argument, but 99% sure this is ragebait 😂

@GaryMarcus OpenAI has real products. SpaceX doesn't.

Economic fundamentals always beat punditry.

@acekingspades OpenAI is making a lot of money. And they invest wisely.

Musk will invest many billions in AI, in datacenters in space, in semiconductor fabs, in humanoids, al these are unproven.

@kagemorten @GaryMarcus Gary's entire scientific career as of late is rage-baiting his colleagues.

@JakeKAllDay indeed, fair point

@GaryMarcus If someone gave me a billion dollars in cash and told me I could only use it to invest in one of those three companies, I would burn the money in my back yard.

@GaryMarcus It is interesting how Softbank and other investors still believe in OpenAI… I mean, what do they see in the leaders and the products?

@GaryMarcus Most people don't realize anthropic isn't the only one with a giant model to distill from.

The fact they're releasing it is a sign of desperation, like when OpenAI released GPT 4.5 and immediately regretted it.

@GaryMarcus Space X 100%

But I’d wait 2 months to let the dust settle

@GaryMarcus SpaceX and OpenAI both look like bad bets. Overvalued.

@GaryMarcus

@GaryMarcus Wasn’t today basically everyone setting up for these IPOs?

@zacurate @GaryMarcus All. Of. Them.

@GaryMarcus Wish I could have voted and it would have been Danny Carey. He should totally IPO