AIA tentative two-year projection for fully AI-led AI R&D at Anthropic
In a September 17, 2026 post, a user suggests a “naive regression” implies Anthropic expects fully AI-led AI research and development in about two years, while noting uncertainty about how the company classifies that status.
TLDR
A user’s September 17, 2026 estimate puts Anthropic’s apparent expectation for fully AI-led AI research and development at about two years away. They call the calculation a “naive regression” and say the blog post leaves the classification unclear. In a reply, they caution that the chart cuts off recent years of progress for tiers AL0, AL1 and AL2. Those curves might be increasingly steep S-shapes, they suggest, while warning that changing tier definitions could produce different plots and support different fitted lines.
Combined views
340
1 Source, first seen 8h ago
A tentative two-year projection for fully AI-led AI R&D at Anthropic
In a September 17, 2026 post, a user suggests a “naive regression” implies Anthropic expects fully AI-led AI research and development in about two years, while noting uncertainty about how the company classifies that status.
TLDR
A user’s September 17, 2026 estimate puts Anthropic’s apparent expectation for fully AI-led AI research and development at about two years away. They call the calculation a “naive regression” and say the blog post leaves the classification unclear. In a reply, they caution that the chart cuts off recent years of progress for tiers AL0, AL1 and AL2. Those curves might be increasingly steep S-shapes, they suggest, while warning that changing tier definitions could produce different plots and support different fitted lines.