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    The possible economic effects of a 10-year AI pause over the next two years

    A poster says they expect economic effects over the next two years if AI is paused for 10 years.

    Christian SzegedyCS
    David Krueger 🦥 ⏸️ ⏹️ ⏪DK
    2 Sources, 1h ago, first seen 1h ago

    TLDR

    A poster considers a hypothetical 10-year pause in AI and introduces their expectations for its economic effects over the next two years.

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    2 Sources, first seen 1h ago

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    Combined views

    1.1K

    2 Sources, first seen 1h ago

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    2 Sources

    David Krueger 🦥 ⏸️ ⏹️ ⏪@DavidSKruegerIf we pause AI for the next 10 years, I expect the economic effects over the next 2 years to be:1h
    Christian Szegedy@ChrSzegedyIt's a very ambiguous question: I think the answer depends on how exactly would it be stopped. Eg. if we just stopped building datacenters, than a large part of the capital allocation (debt accrued, etc) would be wasted and the financial effects would be a disaster. However, the baseline could be even worse and hard to estimate: For example, a somewhat realistic scenario is that we continue with AI and end up with some related disaster. The probability of this is really hard to estimate.28m

    2 Sources

    David Krueger 🦥 ⏸️ ⏹️ ⏪@DavidSKruegerIf we pause AI for the next 10 years, I expect the economic effects over the next 2 years to be:1h
    Christian Szegedy@ChrSzegedyIt's a very ambiguous question: I think the answer depends on how exactly would it be stopped. Eg. if we just stopped building datacenters, than a large part of the capital allocation (debt accrued, etc) would be wasted and the financial effects would be a disaster. However, the baseline could be even worse and hard to estimate: For example, a somewhat realistic scenario is that we continue with AI and end up with some related disaster. The probability of this is really hard to estimate.28m