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    Hyperscaler growth rates versus Anthropic and OpenAI's ARR

    A post argues hyperscaler growth rates capture more AI activity, including open-source models, than Anthropic and OpenAI's ARR.

    Gavin BakerGB
    1 Source, 2h ago, first seen 2h ago

    TLDR

    The writer expects Anthropic to stop sharing annual recurring revenue figures and argues hyperscaler growth rates better reflect AI activity across a wider range of models. Citing public reporting, they say Anthropic had positive free cash flow in Q3 2026; they also say third-party data points to accelerating hyperscaler growth. They predict OpenAI may reach positive free cash flow in the months after their October 15 post and warn against overbuilding AI infrastructure.

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    1 Source, first seen 2h ago

    1.6K likes124 comments714 saves128 reposts

    Combined views

    173.3K

    1 Source, first seen 2h ago

    1.6K likes124 comments714 saves128 reposts

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    1 Source

    Gavin Baker@GavinSBakerTLDR; we will probably never get another ARR number from Anthropic, which is healthy. Should force the market to move away from extreme focus on Anthropic/OpenAI ARR numbers to hyperscale growth rates, which are a much better metric for AI at this point given they capture Muse, Grok, Gemini and Open-Source. Anthropic FCF positive in Q3 and reaccelerating in October on Opus 5.5 per third party data. Roadshow in several weeks will happen after this has been widely confirmed. Unit economics much better than expected given positive FCF with 75% of their compute going to training. All per public reporting. OpenAI continuing to grow at the same pace per Sarah Friar interview after they took share vs. Anthropic in Q3. Means the sum of Anthropic/OpenAI growth is accelerating from the Q3 pace. OpenAI probably hits FCF positive in the next few months. Open-source growing much faster than either Anthropic or OpenAI. Modal tripled since May and is 15x YoY per yesterday’s announcement. Open-source tokens generate more revenue and profit for the hyperscalers/neoclouds than frontier tokens. *Every* open source inference cloud I am aware of is growing faster both sequentially and YoY than either Anthropic or OpenAI. And their combined compute spend is becoming material. Third party data pointing to hyperscalers continuing to accelerate in Q3. All report in the next two weeks. Acceleration should continue in Q4 and Q1 as installed base of compute slowly reprices higher closer to spot and new capacity comes online at higher prices. Continued acceleration in hyperscalers should help address external funding concerns. 10 year yield down in a straight line over the last 24 hours. Some risk of escalation in Iran next few days, but earnings and mid-terms probably outweigh taking an ultra long-term view and looking out 30 days. Biggest risk imo remains cyber and OpenAI/Anthropic dominating the model layer. Fragmentation, competition and lower margins at the model layer are good for everyone else in the ecosystem and for America. Slower for longer is much better than an overbuild and an actual bubble.2h
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    Gavin Baker@GavinSBakerTLDR; we will probably never get another ARR number from Anthropic, which is healthy. Should force the market to move away from extreme focus on Anthropic/OpenAI ARR numbers to hyperscale growth rates, which are a much better metric for AI at this point given they capture Muse, Grok, Gemini and Open-Source. Anthropic FCF positive in Q3 and reaccelerating in October on Opus 5.5 per third party data. Roadshow in several weeks will happen after this has been widely confirmed. Unit economics much better than expected given positive FCF with 75% of their compute going to training. All per public reporting. OpenAI continuing to grow at the same pace per Sarah Friar interview after they took share vs. Anthropic in Q3. Means the sum of Anthropic/OpenAI growth is accelerating from the Q3 pace. OpenAI probably hits FCF positive in the next few months. Open-source growing much faster than either Anthropic or OpenAI. Modal tripled since May and is 15x YoY per yesterday’s announcement. Open-source tokens generate more revenue and profit for the hyperscalers/neoclouds than frontier tokens. *Every* open source inference cloud I am aware of is growing faster both sequentially and YoY than either Anthropic or OpenAI. And their combined compute spend is becoming material. Third party data pointing to hyperscalers continuing to accelerate in Q3. All report in the next two weeks. Acceleration should continue in Q4 and Q1 as installed base of compute slowly reprices higher closer to spot and new capacity comes online at higher prices. Continued acceleration in hyperscalers should help address external funding concerns. 10 year yield down in a straight line over the last 24 hours. Some risk of escalation in Iran next few days, but earnings and mid-terms probably outweigh taking an ultra long-term view and looking out 30 days. Biggest risk imo remains cyber and OpenAI/Anthropic dominating the model layer. Fragmentation, competition and lower margins at the model layer are good for everyone else in the ecosystem and for America. Slower for longer is much better than an overbuild and an actual bubble.2h
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