Robin Hanson estimates $400 million venture develops human brain emulations
Robin Hanson, associate professor of economics at George Mason University, estimates a $400 million venture could develop human brain emulations within a few years after a $50 million mouse feasibility milestone. He calculates ems would capture over 20% of global work value, with present-value projections reaching $4 trillion. World product could rise to $180 trillion annually within ten years, yielding owners over $1 trillion in yearly profits at 5% labor market share. Fellow researchers concur on costs and timeline.
#887Robin Hanson@ROBINHANSON@ben_j_todd @bechhof ~$10T?
Robin Hanson@robinhansonI know of venture might make brain emulations [ems] in a few years for ~$0.4B. (Mouse feasibility milestone at ~$50M.) A present value [PV] calculation: 1) World product [WP] is now ~$115T/yr; in 10yr ~$180T/yr. 2) ~52% of WP is paid to human labor, that’s ~$94T in 10yr. 3) <10yrs after cheaper-than-human brain ems, they do >20% of work by value. 4) If em-IP gets ~5% of em wages, that’s >$1T/yr. At ~10%/yr discount, PV ~$4T*SuccessChance. 5) SuccessChance > 0.01% is enough, I say tis >1%. 6) New economy grows faster, but interest rates rise, PV effects cancel. My book on ems: http://ageofem.com
@robinhanson I roughly agree with this. (Although the probability in investing now in the venture that actually becomes the Apple of Ems is of course lower...)
Robin Hanson@robinhansonI know of venture might make brain emulations [ems] in a few years for ~$0.4B. (Mouse feasibility milestone at ~$50M.) A present value [PV] calculation: 1) World product [WP] is now ~$115T/yr; in 10yr ~$180T/yr. 2) ~52% of WP is paid to human labor, that’s ~$94T in 10yr. 3) <10yrs after cheaper-than-human brain ems, they do >20% of work by value. 4) If em-IP gets ~5% of em wages, that’s >$1T/yr. At ~10%/yr discount, PV ~$4T*SuccessChance. 5) SuccessChance > 0.01% is enough, I say tis >1%. 6) New economy grows faster, but interest rates rise, PV effects cancel. My book on ems: http://ageofem.com