10h ago

Mosaic Probabilistic Model Matches SOTA Weather Forecasts In Under 12s On H100

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Original post
Jan-Willem van de Meent#1677@JWVDMOPMax ZhdanovMax Zhdanov@MAXXXZDN

🌍Today we release Mosaic, a probabilistic weather model that shifts the Pareto frontier of ML weather forecasting. It matches the skill of state-of-the-art models while generating a 24-member, 10-day global forecast in under 12 s on a single H100. Thread!

2:12 AM · May 20, 2026 View on X
QUOTE POSTJan-Willem van de Meent#1677Jan-Willem van de Meent@JWVDM

Great paper by Maksim, who has been building up a repertoire of signature scalable attention mechanisms for physical prediction tasks! Mosaic produces sharp, calibrated weather ensembles; global ensemble forecasts in seconds on a single H100.

Max ZhdanovMax Zhdanov@maxxxzdn

🌍Today we release Mosaic, a probabilistic weather model that shifts the Pareto frontier of ML weather forecasting. It matches the skill of state-of-the-art models while generating a 24-member, 10-day global forecast in under 12 s on a single H100. Thread!

9:12 AM · May 20, 2026 · 46.2K Views
10:49 AM · May 20, 2026 · 1.8K Views