Announcement
Two superforecasters working with AI reportedly narrowly beat the AI alone at forecasting
A Preseen team member says using its system well required knowing when and how human expertise could improve its output.
TLDR
A Preseen team member says two superforecasters working with the company’s forecasting AI narrowly beat the system alone. The post argues that domain expertise does not automatically translate into skill at guiding AI, and that people may change how they use a system as they learn its constraints. On the three questions where human overrides cost the most, moving toward community predictions hurt performance.
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