Investor Gavin Baker outlines wafer shortages, power availability, and DRAM supply as potential bottlenecks for AI scaling and valuations in a discussion with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Describes orbital data centers using 3,000-pound Blackwell racks with 500-foot solar wings.
#170Dylan Patel@DYLAN522PBanger take
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshagGavin Baker: "I've been optimistic that the fundamental shortage of wafers, which is really controlled by Taiwan Semi, will prevent a bubble." "If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, Nvidia could sell $2 trillion of GPUs in 2026 or 2027. But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much that you'd probably be in an overbuild. And you are starting to see companies go to Intel and Samsung. A lot of this may come down to the degree to which Taiwan Semi can maintain a lead over Intel and Samsung and the pace at which they expand capacity. If I were to watch one thing to understand whether there's a bubble, it's Taiwan Semi's capacity decisions. There's a Goldilocks zone where they expand enough to make it hard for Intel or Samsung to emerge as a second source, but they also keep the fundamental constraint on wafers that helps us avoid a bubble."
@shaunmmaguire Wow thank you Shaun!
Shaun Maguire@shaunmmaguireThis was one of the best podcasts I’ve ever listened to @GavinSBaker is at the top of his game Incredible synthesis of knowledge here
Always enjoy my conversations with @patrick_oshag
Points if you can guess whose office this was filmed in.
Also looks like I might need to up my dose of Tirzepatide. 😂
YouTube link:
Gavin Baker@GavinSBakerAlways enjoy my conversations with @patrick_oshag Points if you can guess whose office this was filmed in. Also looks like I might need to up my dose of Tirzepatide. 😂
@patrick_oshag Thank you - love our conversations!
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshagThis is my sixth conversation with @GavinSBaker. As always with Gavin, the conversation covers a lot of ground, but we spend the most time on watts and wafers. We discuss: - Why the wafer shortage may prevent an AI bubble - Data centers in space (reframed) - Elon's Terafab and the new chip companies challenging Nvidia - Usage-based pricing - The disaggregation of GPUs - DRAM, frontier tokens, and open source Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 7:55 Anthropic and OpenAI Valuations 12:58 Watts, Wafers, and Infrastructure 14:39 Orbital Compute and Data Centers in Space 22:49 Avoiding the AI Bubble 28:26 Terafab and the Future of US Manufacturing 32:16 Returns to the Frontier 37:23 Continual Learning 42:03 New Chip Companies 48:52 Extending GPU Lifespans and Private Credit 51:22 The Application Layer 57:32 The Token Path and Open-Source Dynamics 1:01:37 Cybersecurity 1:05:46 Diversity Breakdown 1:11:59 Assessing the Big Tech Players in AI 1:19:02 Geopolitics, Personal Safety, and the AI Horizon
@altcap Love it thanks my friend. Let’s do a BGGB episode sometime
Brad Gerstner@altcapDespite GB being inverse BG - we share alot of opinions including this one. Memory & power are also constraints. It doesn’t mean stocks can’t enter a bubble - but these constraints limit overbuild for next couple years. 🧐👊
@dylan522p Ha thank you my friend
Dylan Patel@dylan522pBanger take
@patrick_oshag I could have saved myself so much brain damage by saying “racks in space” instead of “data centers in space.”
The “cooling in space is impossible” people are super vocal.
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshagOriginal clip:
@patrick_oshag @GavinSBaker This was your best episode yet!
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshagThis is my sixth conversation with @GavinSBaker. As always with Gavin, the conversation covers a lot of ground, but we spend the most time on watts and wafers. We discuss: - Why the wafer shortage may prevent an AI bubble - Data centers in space (reframed) - Elon's Terafab and the new chip companies challenging Nvidia - Usage-based pricing - The disaggregation of GPUs - DRAM, frontier tokens, and open source Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 7:55 Anthropic and OpenAI Valuations 12:58 Watts, Wafers, and Infrastructure 14:39 Orbital Compute and Data Centers in Space 22:49 Avoiding the AI Bubble 28:26 Terafab and the Future of US Manufacturing 32:16 Returns to the Frontier 37:23 Continual Learning 42:03 New Chip Companies 48:52 Extending GPU Lifespans and Private Credit 51:22 The Application Layer 57:32 The Token Path and Open-Source Dynamics 1:01:37 Cybersecurity 1:05:46 Diversity Breakdown 1:11:59 Assessing the Big Tech Players in AI 1:19:02 Geopolitics, Personal Safety, and the AI Horizon
#1333Shaun Maguire@SHAUNMMAGUIREThis was one of the best podcasts I’ve ever listened to
@GavinSBaker is at the top of his game
Incredible synthesis of knowledge here
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshagThis is my sixth conversation with @GavinSBaker. As always with Gavin, the conversation covers a lot of ground, but we spend the most time on watts and wafers. We discuss: - Why the wafer shortage may prevent an AI bubble - Data centers in space (reframed) - Elon's Terafab and the new chip companies challenging Nvidia - Usage-based pricing - The disaggregation of GPUs - DRAM, frontier tokens, and open source Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 7:55 Anthropic and OpenAI Valuations 12:58 Watts, Wafers, and Infrastructure 14:39 Orbital Compute and Data Centers in Space 22:49 Avoiding the AI Bubble 28:26 Terafab and the Future of US Manufacturing 32:16 Returns to the Frontier 37:23 Continual Learning 42:03 New Chip Companies 48:52 Extending GPU Lifespans and Private Credit 51:22 The Application Layer 57:32 The Token Path and Open-Source Dynamics 1:01:37 Cybersecurity 1:05:46 Diversity Breakdown 1:11:59 Assessing the Big Tech Players in AI 1:19:02 Geopolitics, Personal Safety, and the AI Horizon
#1614Brad Gerstner@ALTCAPDespite GB being inverse BG - we share alot of opinions including this one. Memory & power are also constraints. It doesn’t mean stocks can’t enter a bubble - but these constraints limit overbuild for next couple years. 🧐👊
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshagGavin Baker: "I've been optimistic that the fundamental shortage of wafers, which is really controlled by Taiwan Semi, will prevent a bubble." "If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, Nvidia could sell $2 trillion of GPUs in 2026 or 2027. But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much that you'd probably be in an overbuild. And you are starting to see companies go to Intel and Samsung. A lot of this may come down to the degree to which Taiwan Semi can maintain a lead over Intel and Samsung and the pace at which they expand capacity. If I were to watch one thing to understand whether there's a bubble, it's Taiwan Semi's capacity decisions. There's a Goldilocks zone where they expand enough to make it hard for Intel or Samsung to emerge as a second source, but they also keep the fundamental constraint on wafers that helps us avoid a bubble."
@GavinSBaker @patrick_oshag May I interview you?
Gavin Baker@GavinSBakerAlways enjoy my conversations with @patrick_oshag Points if you can guess whose office this was filmed in. Also looks like I might need to up my dose of Tirzepatide. 😂
#1862Patrick OShaughnessy@PATRICK_OSHAGIn our last conversation, Gavin said data centers in space will be the most important thing in 3-4 years.
He explains that means "racks in space" and thinks orbital compute will solve the watts shortage:
"When people hear data centers in space, they picture a Pentagon-sized building in space. That's not what it is.
A Blackwell rack weighs 3,000 pounds. It's eight feet high. Four feet deep. Three feet wide.
It's racks in space. It has these solar wings that are probably 500 feet long on each side.
You keep it in a Sun-synchronous orbit, so those solar panels are always in the sun.
And then because it's in an exactly Sun-synchronous orbit, the radiator, which extends behind it for hundreds of feet is in the shade.
You link these racks using lasers traveling through vacuum which are already on every Starlink.
SpaceX operates the world's largest satellite fleet, which is 98 or 99% of all satellites in orbit. Every Starlink, they're cooling it today.
I think Starlink V3 is going to operate at 20 kilowatts. A Blackwell rack is only 100 kilowatts.
And people talk a lot about density. Well, if you're connecting the racks with lasers through vacuum, you can make the rack bigger physically.
In space, there's all sorts of things that SpaceX can do. They also now operate the largest data center on Earth.
I've spent a lot of time at Starbase over the years, and I've talked to a lot of SpaceX engineers.
It is the most talented group of engineers on planet Earth, and they're very confident they have solved this."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshagThis is my sixth conversation with @GavinSBaker. As always with Gavin, the conversation covers a lot of ground, but we spend the most time on watts and wafers. We discuss: - Why the wafer shortage may prevent an AI bubble - Data centers in space (reframed) - Elon's Terafab and the new chip companies challenging Nvidia - Usage-based pricing - The disaggregation of GPUs - DRAM, frontier tokens, and open source Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 7:55 Anthropic and OpenAI Valuations 12:58 Watts, Wafers, and Infrastructure 14:39 Orbital Compute and Data Centers in Space 22:49 Avoiding the AI Bubble 28:26 Terafab and the Future of US Manufacturing 32:16 Returns to the Frontier 37:23 Continual Learning 42:03 New Chip Companies 48:52 Extending GPU Lifespans and Private Credit 51:22 The Application Layer 57:32 The Token Path and Open-Source Dynamics 1:01:37 Cybersecurity 1:05:46 Diversity Breakdown 1:11:59 Assessing the Big Tech Players in AI 1:19:02 Geopolitics, Personal Safety, and the AI Horizon
#1862Patrick OShaughnessy@PATRICK_OSHAGOriginal clip:
#1862Patrick OShaughnessy@PATRICK_OSHAGGavin Baker: "I've been optimistic that the fundamental shortage of wafers, which is really controlled by Taiwan Semi, will prevent a bubble."
"If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, Nvidia could sell $2 trillion of GPUs in 2026 or 2027.
But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much that you'd probably be in an overbuild.
And you are starting to see companies go to Intel and Samsung.
A lot of this may come down to the degree to which Taiwan Semi can maintain a lead over Intel and Samsung and the pace at which they expand capacity.
If I were to watch one thing to understand whether there's a bubble, it's Taiwan Semi's capacity decisions.
There's a Goldilocks zone where they expand enough to make it hard for Intel or Samsung to emerge as a second source, but they also keep the fundamental constraint on wafers that helps us avoid a bubble."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshagThis is my sixth conversation with @GavinSBaker. As always with Gavin, the conversation covers a lot of ground, but we spend the most time on watts and wafers. We discuss: - Why the wafer shortage may prevent an AI bubble - Data centers in space (reframed) - Elon's Terafab and the new chip companies challenging Nvidia - Usage-based pricing - The disaggregation of GPUs - DRAM, frontier tokens, and open source Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 7:55 Anthropic and OpenAI Valuations 12:58 Watts, Wafers, and Infrastructure 14:39 Orbital Compute and Data Centers in Space 22:49 Avoiding the AI Bubble 28:26 Terafab and the Future of US Manufacturing 32:16 Returns to the Frontier 37:23 Continual Learning 42:03 New Chip Companies 48:52 Extending GPU Lifespans and Private Credit 51:22 The Application Layer 57:32 The Token Path and Open-Source Dynamics 1:01:37 Cybersecurity 1:05:46 Diversity Breakdown 1:11:59 Assessing the Big Tech Players in AI 1:19:02 Geopolitics, Personal Safety, and the AI Horizon
#1862Patrick OShaughnessy@PATRICK_OSHAGGavin on why Elon's new chip fab, Terafab, will be successful:
"One, they have a partnership with Intel, which is very important. They're getting access to 50 years of institutional knowledge.
The A teams at the semi cap equipment companies will be working with them. ASML, KLA, Lam Research, Applied Materials.
One big reason Taiwan Semi caught up is those companies wanted them to catch up. They don't like having a monopsony.
And Elon is a living deity in China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.
He's going to recruit the best people because the best engineers want to work for him, especially in hardware engineering.
Then next to Terafab, there'll be a Taiwan Town. 'These are your favorite restaurants? I'm going to move them and their whole staff from Taiwan to Texas.' Then we'll have Japan Town. Then Korea Town.
That's just not the way the people who run Intel and Samsung think.
So he's going to have the best talent, the A teams at the wafer fab equipment companies and he has Intel.
And it's different enough that it will not alienate Taiwan Semi."
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshagThis is my sixth conversation with @GavinSBaker. As always with Gavin, the conversation covers a lot of ground, but we spend the most time on watts and wafers. We discuss: - Why the wafer shortage may prevent an AI bubble - Data centers in space (reframed) - Elon's Terafab and the new chip companies challenging Nvidia - Usage-based pricing - The disaggregation of GPUs - DRAM, frontier tokens, and open source Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 7:55 Anthropic and OpenAI Valuations 12:58 Watts, Wafers, and Infrastructure 14:39 Orbital Compute and Data Centers in Space 22:49 Avoiding the AI Bubble 28:26 Terafab and the Future of US Manufacturing 32:16 Returns to the Frontier 37:23 Continual Learning 42:03 New Chip Companies 48:52 Extending GPU Lifespans and Private Credit 51:22 The Application Layer 57:32 The Token Path and Open-Source Dynamics 1:01:37 Cybersecurity 1:05:46 Diversity Breakdown 1:11:59 Assessing the Big Tech Players in AI 1:19:02 Geopolitics, Personal Safety, and the AI Horizon
#1862Patrick OShaughnessy@PATRICK_OSHAG@GavinSBaker Enjoy!
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshagThis is my sixth conversation with @GavinSBaker. As always with Gavin, the conversation covers a lot of ground, but we spend the most time on watts and wafers. We discuss: - Why the wafer shortage may prevent an AI bubble - Data centers in space (reframed) - Elon's Terafab and the new chip companies challenging Nvidia - Usage-based pricing - The disaggregation of GPUs - DRAM, frontier tokens, and open source Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 7:55 Anthropic and OpenAI Valuations 12:58 Watts, Wafers, and Infrastructure 14:39 Orbital Compute and Data Centers in Space 22:49 Avoiding the AI Bubble 28:26 Terafab and the Future of US Manufacturing 32:16 Returns to the Frontier 37:23 Continual Learning 42:03 New Chip Companies 48:52 Extending GPU Lifespans and Private Credit 51:22 The Application Layer 57:32 The Token Path and Open-Source Dynamics 1:01:37 Cybersecurity 1:05:46 Diversity Breakdown 1:11:59 Assessing the Big Tech Players in AI 1:19:02 Geopolitics, Personal Safety, and the AI Horizon
This is my sixth conversation with @GavinSBaker.
As always with Gavin, the conversation covers a lot of ground, but we spend the most time on watts and wafers.
We discuss: - Why the wafer shortage may prevent an AI bubble - Data centers in space (reframed) - Elon's Terafab and the new chip companies challenging Nvidia - Usage-based pricing - The disaggregation of GPUs - DRAM, frontier tokens, and open source
Enjoy!
Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 7:55 Anthropic and OpenAI Valuations 12:58 Watts, Wafers, and Infrastructure 14:39 Orbital Compute and Data Centers in Space 22:49 Avoiding the AI Bubble 28:26 Terafab and the Future of US Manufacturing 32:16 Returns to the Frontier 37:23 Continual Learning 42:03 New Chip Companies 48:52 Extending GPU Lifespans and Private Credit 51:22 The Application Layer 57:32 The Token Path and Open-Source Dynamics 1:01:37 Cybersecurity 1:05:46 Diversity Breakdown 1:11:59 Assessing the Big Tech Players in AI 1:19:02 Geopolitics, Personal Safety, and the AI Horizon