A warning about near-perfect oracle pass rates meets a shoe-tying challenge

In an Oct. 22, 2026, reply on X, herbiebradley argued that if an oracle is uncertain, an acceptance rate close to 100% should prompt a strong belief that someone is “secretly Goodharting” or that something else is going wrong. The warning was conditional: the post did not report an oracle reaching that rate.

bayeslord challenged the warning with a familiar task. Would someone reaching down to tie their shoes be more than 99% confident of succeeding, they asked, and would that person worry they were “secretly not actually tying your shoes”? In a later reply, bayeslord wrote, “So you agree, your brain contains the shoe tying oracle.”

herbiebradley called it their “joking point” that a high pass rate for the oracle need not mean optimal long-term success. They added that “obviously drugs are disanalogous in infinite ways,” limiting how far the shoe-tying example could carry the discussion.