Zvi Mowshowitz says Polymarket odds for Claude Fable 5 returning to US users by August are overconfident due to KYC hurdles
The Polymarket contract reached $1.9 million in trading volume.
Positive users express excitement and hope for a Claude Fable 5 comeback after Polymarket odds spiked on a mystery event, while negative users dismiss the surge as insider trading and unrealistic gatekeeping.
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Someone knows something
something happened an hour ago that made fable 5's chances of coming back next week go from 15% to 60%
@gomes_ha @TheZvi And now on AWS bedrock.
@gregisenberg it's because of the Claude Code update:
@TheZvi Is this already taken into account (I’m sure it is, just checking why it doesn’t move the needle more):
@blader Patiently waiting for it to be released to the public again
@gregisenberg Please let them be right
@blader It’s back live in Bedrock
@TheZvi it's all much too pessimistic Zvi! no one knows anything. just look at this 1h chart
@TheZvi What’s your likelihood that the export control will stay in place even after KYC is implemented, so foreigners will not be able to access it at all?
@AndrewCurran_ @gomes_ha @TheZvi Does that mean it can actually be used right now through the AWS API?
@blader Sweet…
@blader june 26th will be good time for Fable 5 comeback
@TheZvi The X factor is that the admin doesn’t give a shit about sufficient KYC, they just need lip service and ideological buy-in
@blader I wonder if it will be as good as the “old” version of Fable
@robj3d3 @gregisenberg yep and the aws bedrock listing
@blader government inside trading again 😆
@gregisenberg the insiders always win
@blader because of this:
@gregisenberg Fable 5 will back for us soon
i think tomorrow :D
@htihle @TheZvi Seems extremely likely. Unless Fable 5.1 soon comes out with guardrails exponentially more strict than Fable 5's already very strict guardrails